Zogby: Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative

zogby.com ^ | January 20, 2004 | zogby

[KQQL]

As Democrats Vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Bush Looks Vulnerable in Both His Re-Elect and Face-Off with Generic Democrat; Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative; Democrats Lead Over Republicans in Congressional Generic, New Zogby International Poll Reveals

President George W. Bush’s job performance has dropped since mid- December, while his vulnerability increases when matched against an unnamed Democrat or when respondents are asked if he should be re-elected.

The most recent Zogby America poll of 1000 likely voters chosen at random was conducted January 15-18, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.Margins are higher in sub-groups.

Bush Job Performance Positive% Negative %

January 15-18, 2004 49 50

Nearly two in five (41%) would vote for Bush, while 45% would opt to support an unnamed Democrat over Bush. In December polling, Bush held a slight edge over a generic Democrat. Nearly one in eight are unsure or prefer another choice.

Date Bush % Any Democrat %

January 15-18, 2004 41 45

Pollster John Zogby: “The country is clearly divided just as it was during the 2000 election. According to the O’Leary/Zogby Red & Blue State Monitor, a plurality of Red State voters (Bush 2000) voters believe the country is headed in the right direction (49%), while 38% say it’s the wrong direction. In the Blue States (Gore 2000) 46% think the country is headed in the wrong direction while 41% say it’s the right direction. In both Red and Blue States (13%) a similar number unsure

[finnman69]

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 9-11, 2004. N=793 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
						.
"If [see below] were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: [see below], the Democrat, or George W. Bush, the Republican?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward [see below], the Democrat, or Bush, the Republican?" Names rotated
		George W. Bush	Howard Dean	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/9-11/04	56	41	1	-	2
	1/2-5/04	59	37	2	-	2
	Among registered voters:
	12/15-16/03	60	37	1	-	2
	12/11-14/03	52	44	2	-	2
	11/03	53	44	1	-	2
	9/03	49	46	2	1	2
						.
		George W. Bush	Wesley Clark	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/9-11/04	56	42	1	-	1
	Among registered voters:
	12/15-16/03	56	40	2	-	2
	11/03	50	47	1	-	2
	9/03	46	49	2	-	3
						.
		George W. Bush	Richard Gephardt	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/9-11/04	55	42	2	1	1
	Among registered voters:
	11/03	52	46	1	-	1
	9/03	48	46	3	1	2
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No Opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
	1/9-11/04	55	43	1	-	1
	Among registered voters:
	11/03	52	46	1	-	1
	9/03	47	48	2	1	2
						.

[deport]

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

Dig around in the above for some accuracy ratings......

[OldFriend]

Zogby gets FAR too much credibility from the conservatives.

[GROOVY]

Zog did call the Kerry Edwards surge correctly. the final caucus numbers are a little different as the caucuses are not straight up and down votes.

good point, I would still expect it to be a bit closer than 11-14% off on a couple of candidates thoough.

[bioprof]

"The fringes on either the left or right are a total non factor in winning an election"

Refreshing to see this posting - wish I would see more of the same on a regular basis. I'm tired of the whining that this or that particular group doesn't get everything it wants. Do any of the hard right wingers believe for one moment that late term abortions would finally be banned - that a stand on human cloning would be taken - that Pickering would have a recess appointment ( the others were offered the same but turned it down )- if Bush weren't in office. Sure there are things done that none of us like ....but people -----wake up- what are the alternatives? Common Tator has it pegged.

[Naspino]

As for his Dec. '03 predictions on Iowa, they may very well have been accurate. That was just as Dean wasbeginning his catastrophic collapse. So I wouldn't necessarily say that those numbers were inaccurate.

If those numbers were accurate 30 days before the results get entirely flip-flopped then Zogby's numbers 11 months before the election are entirely irrelevant.

[pgkdan]

As for his Dec. '03 predictions on Iowa, they may very well have been accurate.

You're right. The causcus set up prevents reliable polling. Even Fox's entrace polling seemed way off. That's because people are politicked hard and heavy AT the caucus. If your guy doesn't hit the 15% threshold you have to causcus for someone else or go home.

[bioprof]

"This, in my opinion, appears to be an instant re-play of the 1992 election season"

1992 - Ross Perot - 19% of electorate.....lest we forget.

1992 had nothing to do with Clinton and everything to do with Perot. People forget just how many votes he got. People also forget that GW is well liked by many people - much warmer than his dad - and Clinton provided a stark contrast in the "likeability" factor which allowed people to ignore the issues. We can ill afford to ignore the issues these days and the Dems know it as well.

[templar]

Interesting. Looks like the only thing more accurate thatn Zogby (and some others that were basically the same) was Harris and CBS, but they were all pretty close. Course, lotta things will change before the elections.

[templar]

Do any of the hard right wingers believe for one moment that late term abortions would finally be banned ... if Bush weren't in office. -

When were late term abortions banned? Did I miss something?

[lasereye]

The percentages reported from the caucuses are of DELEGATES I believe, not raw VOTE totals. The caucusers make second choice selections which are factored in. There's no way to equate poll results to the caucus results. Of all the polls Zogby had the second highest percent going to Kerry at 25%. How is that supposed to show the poll is off?

[colorado tanker]

See this thread, which analyzes the polls for Bush 43 in contrast to Bush 41, showing Dubya is in a much stronger position, especially on the economy. Bush 41's numbers were in free fall at this time and were very low on the economy. Bush 43's numbers have been stable since September and his numbers on the economy are much higher. Dubya is also benefiting from coming out of the 2000 recession sooner than Bush 41 came out of the 1991 recession. http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1043836/posts

And I agree with you; Perot elected Clinton in 1992.

[Destructor]

This just proves what I've always said: "Roughly half of the people in this country are idiots!" Boy! I am really gettin' tired of being right all the time!!

[illini20]

Remember the CBS/NYT poll that came out sunday that had bush at 50% approval? Andrew Sullivan has a great explanation for Bush's horrible ratings in that particular poll. His explanation was party id. This poll had party id at 34% GOP and 47% DEMOCRAT. You think that might help explain Bush's dismal performance in that poll?? Is the NYT skewing polls on purpose?

[LS]

Thanks. Those are the numbers I recall.

[ZULU]

What do you expect from an Arab. He must be conducting polls in Detroit or Patterson, New Jersey.

[ambrose]

Zogpiss really blew it in Iowa - as did all the pollsters.

[KQQL]

lol

[bioprof]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/11/20031105-1.html

President Bush Signs Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003 The Ronald Reagan Building Washington, D.C.

1:40 P.M. EST

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I'm pleased that all of you have joined us as the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003 becomes the law of the land. (Applause.) For years, a terrible form of violence has been directed against children who are inches from birth, while the law looked the other way. Today, at last, the American people and our government have confronted the violence and come to the defense of the innocent child. (Applause.) I want to thank you all for coming. Many of you have worked long and hard to see this bill come to fruition, and we thank you for your efforts.

etc. etc.

[BobinIL]

Heck I am not approving of Bush's performance lately with the Imigration amnesty proposal, and I am about a far right wing as one can get. But I would walk a mile on broken glass to vote for Bush over one of the 8 little dwarves?