Posted on 01/20/2004 9:11:14 AM PST by KQQL
As Democrats Vote in Iowa and New Hampshire, President Bush Looks Vulnerable in Both His Re-Elect and Face-Off with Generic Democrat; Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative; Democrats Lead Over Republicans in Congressional Generic, New Zogby International Poll Reveals
President George W. Bush’s job performance has dropped since mid- December, while his vulnerability increases when matched against an unnamed Democrat or when respondents are asked if he should be re-elected.
The most recent Zogby America poll of 1000 likely voters chosen at random was conducted January 15-18, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.Margins are higher in sub-groups.
Bush Job Performance Positive% Negative %
January 15-18, 2004 49 50
Nearly two in five (41%) would vote for Bush, while 45% would opt to support an unnamed Democrat over Bush. In December polling, Bush held a slight edge over a generic Democrat. Nearly one in eight are unsure or prefer another choice.
Date Bush % Any Democrat %
January 15-18, 2004 41 45
Pollster John Zogby: “The country is clearly divided just as it was during the 2000 election. According to the O’Leary/Zogby Red & Blue State Monitor, a plurality of Red State voters (Bush 2000) voters believe the country is headed in the right direction (49%), while 38% say it’s the wrong direction. In the Blue States (Gore 2000) 46% think the country is headed in the wrong direction while 41% say it’s the right direction. In both Red and Blue States (13%) a similar number unsure
(Excerpt) Read more at zogby.com ...
The recent polls show Bush with 91 percent support from Registered Republicans. That is better than Reagan at this point in 1984.
The so called conservatives never vote for a winner. They did not vote for Reagan in 80 and 84. They did not vote for Nixon or Ford. They did not vote for Bush 41 or Dole.
The so called conservatives don't vote for Republicans any more than the so called liberals voted for Gore. Liberals vote for leftists fringe candidates and so called conservatives vote for right wing fringe candidates or don't vote.
The Bush bashing conservatives on this site were all fawning over Buchanan or the Libertarian candidate in 2000.
Rove doesn't pay any attention to them and neither does anyone else that wants to win an election
Dean thought he could win with the far left. They aren't even 20 percent of the Democrat base.
The name of the game is the center. The candidate that wins the majority fo the center wins the election. The candidate that wins nearly all the center wins a Reaganesque landslide.
The fringes on either the left or right are a total non factor in winning an election.
Look at how major media like the WashPost are spinning the latest polls - claiming majorities do not back Bush's position on specific issues. That's what they do when his approval numbers are up.
It's also evidence that Bush must do something to start shoring up his base. I'd say a point or two of that negative number is made up of po'd Republicans trying to send a message. There's a good amount of anger out there among conservatives right now, but when push comes to shove...most of them will be on board.
I would agree except that the Democrats just don't have candidates with any real public appeal to run against the Republicans. Clinton was a highly appealing candidate to a huge number of Americans (first time I ever heard him speak I predicted he would be the next presidient). Kerry, Dean, and company don't have this kind of appeal. Bush will win by virtue of the power of incumbency (and maybe a major terrorist incident to boost the security issue in his favor).
Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:
"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats: In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote. And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating. Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."
A Bush campaign official said, "It's called the theory of political socialization. Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover. And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support."
Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base in anchored in the religious right. In fact, Democratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis and Stan Greenberg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.
"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."
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