Many see Bush immigration proposals as non-starter (Proposal Faces "Fierce" Resistence In House)

Reuters ^ | 01.07.04 | Alan Elsner

[Pubbie]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush dived into a heated political debate on Wednesday by proposing to create a class of legal "guest workers" in the United States, but analysts said it was doubtful the blueprint could gain congressional approval in this election year.

In a carefully balanced speech, Bush proposed giving some of the estimated 8 million to 14 million illegal immigrants in the country a way to gain three-year temporary work permits, but offered them no clear path to becoming U.S. citizens.

"Our laws should allow willing foreigners to enter our country and fill jobs that Americans are not filling. We must make our immigration laws more rational and more humane," Bush declared.

The proposal seemed calculated to win Bush Hispanic support ahead of the November presidential election while pleasing employers looking for workers to fill mainly manual, agricultural or low paid service jobs.

"The hype and misinformation that this speech will fuel in the immigrant community will be huge. Unfortunately, the excitement will far outweigh the real effect," said Jeff Goldman, an immigration lawyer with Testa, Hurwitz and Thibeault in Boston.

Bush was at pains to declare he was not offering amnesty for people who entered the United States illegally, but opponents of making concessions to the immigrants said that was exactly what he had done.

"This clearly is an amnesty. It provides not only amnesty but a reward for people who committed a felony by coming here illegally," said Rep. Elton Gallegly, a California Republican.

"There will be substantial opposition from Republicans, Democrats and millions of ordinary Americans once they realize what's involved," Gallegly told Reuters.

CAUTIOUS BACKING

While the proposals won some cautious backing from Hispanic groups and immigration backers, some analysts were doubtful that Bush would put much political muscle behind them in the face of fierce opposition from many in his own Republican political base.

"I don't think it's serious. Bush knows the politics. These proposals don't go far enough for most Democrats and they go too far for around 70 to 100 Republicans in the House of Representatives," said Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors more stringent limits on immigration.

"Republican leaders in Congress won't want to bring up this issue, especially this year, because it divides them. Unless Bush twists their arms hard, this is going nowhere," he said.

Legal and illegal immigration to the United States, already at record levels in the 1990s, accelerated further after 2000 despite the economic slowdown, according to U.S. Census data.

From 2000 to 2002, net immigration to the United States averaged around 1.4 million per year, about half a million of whom entered or stayed in the country illegally.

Bush, who won around 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000, would like to raise that proportion to 40 percent or higher this year. Even if he does nothing to push the proposals, the President will be able to incorporate them into his campaign message aimed at Hispanics.

"This makes no sense except political sense. It reeks of bad policy but screams of politics," said David Ray, assistant director of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group campaigning for sharply reduced levels of immigration.

FAIR argued that the plan undermined homeland security, granted an amnesty for law-breakers, established a back door immigration program and threatened the jobs and wages of American workers.

On the other side of the debate, immigration backers were disappointed that the plan offered no clear path for illegal immigrants to become citizens.

"The initial proposal falls short in helping newcomers become fully integrated into our society, but we look forward to working with the administration and Congress to shape the final legislation," said Leonard Glickman, president of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, the country's oldest migration organization.

[Lizavetta]

In most states all you need to vote is to show ur Driver's Lisc.

Here in California, there is NO requirement for any ID of any kind. YOu walk in, say your name, and if you're on the computerized printout you sign (and get an eyeful of other names on the list who haven't voted yet so you can run outside afterwards and tell your buddies, but I digress.....) and get your ballot.

How do you get on the computerized printout list? Call the elections dept. and have them send you a registration form, which you fill out and send in. That's it. Nobody checks to verify, to require proof, nothing.

[Kevin Curry]

Law breakers are no going to suddenly start obeying the law simply because we come up with a new set of laws. They'll do whatever they believe they have to do to maintain an advantage. The will not meekly go back to Mexico at the end of three years just because we have a law that says they must.

They ignore the law now. What in the world makes you believe they will obey the law in the future if it's not to their liking?

[Wolfstar]

Rintense, he won't have to veto it because it isn't likely to pass the House. In fact, it may never come to the floor for a vote since all House members face election every two years. The Dems won't want to sign on because they will complain it won't go far enough. Most Reps won't want to vote for it because they face defeat in their districts. The Senate is a different story. I don't know if there are enough strong, tough conservatives over there to stop such a bill.

[Tempest]

Your post seems to be one of the most sensible I've read.

[Tempest]

Where is the provision in the guest worker program that provides for citizenship??? I think that there seems to be a bit of misinformation in your assertion.

[Prolifeconservative]

"And we certainly need workers for many industries in which native-born Americans refuse to work."

First, came you name those industries please?

And, after you have named them......ask yourself "WHY" native-born Americans refuse to work them.

It appears no-one wants to ask the question "why" Americans refuse to take these lower-paying jobs, including our President.

[Tempest]

Maybe you can answer this because I can't seem to get a straight answer from anyone. Where is the provision for amnesty in the proposal you heard today????

[McGavin999]

The law that Bush is proposing is that employers must post the job (either in the newspaper or internet) if an American applies the employer CAN NOT offer it to a guest worker.

[Tempest]

"This is where I have a problem with Busch's logic.
This is suppose to be a country that operates through free enterprise. We pay people on the basis of supply and demand. If Americans will not take a job it is likely that the job just does not pay enough. Corporations are operating outside of the law when they hire illegal aliens to work these jobs for low pay. Companies should follow the law are pay a stiff price. And if they cannot find American workers to do the job they will just have to raise the pay rate and I guarantee that Americans will take the jobs. That is the American way!"

So you want to pay $12 dollar for a head of lettuce???!!

[Pubbie]

They can now apply for Green Cards.

[tracer]

Perhaps one of the few things President Bush and I (FWIW) have in common, other than our overall political orientation, is an appreciation for Uncle Remus's "Tar Baby" story.

And methinks the Dems are about to tumble into the ole briar patch....

[Age of Reason]

And we certainly need workers for many industries in which native-born Americans refuse to work.

I see you've drunk the Kool-Aid.

There is no job Americans won't do, if illegals didn't lower the cost of wages by working for less, paying no taxes, getting no benefits, and sleeping in fields.

[Pubbie]

What do you mean?

[Age of Reason]

So you want to pay $12 dollar for a head of lettuce???!!

Show me the math.

You make a statement like that, now show us the math.

[Tempest]

"If you were running a job such as asbestos removal, for example, and you didn't feel like paying extra $$$ for things like safety equipment and resparators who would you rather hire an american citizen with all the rights and protections afforded under OSHA and the EPA or an illegal mexican, who won't dare complain for fear of deportation? Take the same scenario, who's more likely to demand higher wages for hazardous work? Again, it isn't that americans are too lazy to work, but they won't work under slave conditions."

I would think that under a regulated guest worker program. Wages would have to increase somewhat because employers couldn't threaten deportation if an immigrant worker refused to work in hazardous conditions. It seems to me that the increased wage would make the job slightly more competative.

[Lady Eileen]

bump

[McGavin999]

If they apply for a green card they can apply for citizenship. A blue card means they can work here for 3 years and then go home.

[Wolfstar]

With all due respect, and with what I hope is a very gentle reminder of how the legislative process works: ALL MEMBERS OF CONGRESS (House and Senate) can write legislation at any time. Whether or not a particular bill gets very far depends on it's content, the support the originating member can drum up for it, and so on. Being head of the Executive Branch, all any president can do is propose legislation. It is ALWAYS up to Congress to hammer out the legislative details in a bill, pass it, and send it to the president for his signature.

What appears to have happened in this instance is that President Bush has outlined several provisions he'd like to see in legislation. He seems to have based his proposals on legislation that has already been written by John McCain and several other members of the Arizona delegation. What the above article is saying is that if the president does not put his muscle behind this legislation, it is likely to go nowhere this election year.

[Tempest]

"They can now apply for Green Cards."

I'm sorry but I don't recall that be a special provision in todays proposal.

Do you mean that they can apply for green cards because they recieved a a guest worker visa. My impression is that this guest worker visa is rather specific and doesn't translate in to normal work visa.

Are you extrapolating or was their something clearly stating this. It sounded to me that many immigrant organization were frustrated by this proposal because it didn't provide for a way for the illegals to cut ahead of the line and obtain citizenship.

[Lady Eileen]

I will call tomorrow.