Posted on 01/07/2004 2:27:14 PM PST by Pubbie
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush dived into a heated political debate on Wednesday by proposing to create a class of legal "guest workers" in the United States, but analysts said it was doubtful the blueprint could gain congressional approval in this election year.
In a carefully balanced speech, Bush proposed giving some of the estimated 8 million to 14 million illegal immigrants in the country a way to gain three-year temporary work permits, but offered them no clear path to becoming U.S. citizens.
"Our laws should allow willing foreigners to enter our country and fill jobs that Americans are not filling. We must make our immigration laws more rational and more humane," Bush declared.
The proposal seemed calculated to win Bush Hispanic support ahead of the November presidential election while pleasing employers looking for workers to fill mainly manual, agricultural or low paid service jobs.
"The hype and misinformation that this speech will fuel in the immigrant community will be huge. Unfortunately, the excitement will far outweigh the real effect," said Jeff Goldman, an immigration lawyer with Testa, Hurwitz and Thibeault in Boston.
Bush was at pains to declare he was not offering amnesty for people who entered the United States illegally, but opponents of making concessions to the immigrants said that was exactly what he had done.
"This clearly is an amnesty. It provides not only amnesty but a reward for people who committed a felony by coming here illegally," said Rep. Elton Gallegly, a California Republican.
"There will be substantial opposition from Republicans, Democrats and millions of ordinary Americans once they realize what's involved," Gallegly told Reuters.
CAUTIOUS BACKING
While the proposals won some cautious backing from Hispanic groups and immigration backers, some analysts were doubtful that Bush would put much political muscle behind them in the face of fierce opposition from many in his own Republican political base.
"I don't think it's serious. Bush knows the politics. These proposals don't go far enough for most Democrats and they go too far for around 70 to 100 Republicans in the House of Representatives," said Steven Camarota, research director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors more stringent limits on immigration.
"Republican leaders in Congress won't want to bring up this issue, especially this year, because it divides them. Unless Bush twists their arms hard, this is going nowhere," he said.
Legal and illegal immigration to the United States, already at record levels in the 1990s, accelerated further after 2000 despite the economic slowdown, according to U.S. Census data.
From 2000 to 2002, net immigration to the United States averaged around 1.4 million per year, about half a million of whom entered or stayed in the country illegally.
Bush, who won around 35 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2000, would like to raise that proportion to 40 percent or higher this year. Even if he does nothing to push the proposals, the President will be able to incorporate them into his campaign message aimed at Hispanics.
"This makes no sense except political sense. It reeks of bad policy but screams of politics," said David Ray, assistant director of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group campaigning for sharply reduced levels of immigration.
FAIR argued that the plan undermined homeland security, granted an amnesty for law-breakers, established a back door immigration program and threatened the jobs and wages of American workers.
On the other side of the debate, immigration backers were disappointed that the plan offered no clear path for illegal immigrants to become citizens.
"The initial proposal falls short in helping newcomers become fully integrated into our society, but we look forward to working with the administration and Congress to shape the final legislation," said Leonard Glickman, president of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, the country's oldest migration organization.
Maybe a good start.. Money talks..
You mean gains in Congress because people like the Bush program and want to elect Republicans to get it passed or because people don't like the program and will vote Republican to get it blocked?
So hell. Go full hog, Mr. Libr'al Dubya. Heck, you might as well make a big deal out of pushing for and signing the assault weapons renewel.
Ya can't lose my vote twice, after all.
Yeah, just like he knew that Campaign Finance Reform would be overturned by the SCOTUS.
Look, lets face it. Bush is a flaming liberal.
Thanks for the easy one! ILLEGAL now, poof, LEGAL, Amnesty! Not very elaborate I know, but extremely accurate. Blackbird.
There is a side of me that believes it is --- that this is all a game of sorts --- but why? Why risk losing votes? Illegals can only vote if there is major election fraud going on. Bush can't be honest if he's hoping to win an election by fraud. I realize the Bush-Gore election was very close --- but I would think Bush would instead be attempting to clean up the elections.
And methinks you are correct.
If the democrats don't smell danger here it's because they are too stupid to see it. This could prove to be a very dangerous election year trap for them.
The republicans aren't gonna carry the water because they just don't believe in this crap.
If the demos want to carry the water, they have to make a public declaration of their alliance with the illegal advocacy groups. This puts them on the wrong side of the ball with the public. The last thing they want is a public debate about the issue. Voters could very well tag the dems as not only soft on security, unintelligible on the economy but also pro illegal immigration to boot (which they are).
Not good.
So, bottom line: It ain't gonna happen. If there is a public debate in congress, it can only lead to bad things for the dems. If the repubs make the sweep we think they are going to make in November, the entire issue will be framed in another light, one not favorable to illegal aliens and their supporters.
Strategery...
I'm tired of Bush passing his responsibilities off to others. We got screwed on Campaign Finance Reform because of this trait of his. Because Bush would not step up to the plate, be a man and a leader, and stake out a principled stand, the NRA is now forbidden to inform voters of a candidates positions on guns 60 days before an election.
No, he gets no more passes from me on this sort of behavior. It's Clintonian.
So I assume you are fully supportive of the Bush plan? It would resolve this problem, since the workers would no longer be illegal; the employers would have to pay at least minimum wage, and could not exploit the workers.
However, the issue to which I was reponding dealt with companies putting labor out to the lowest bidder. That is a time-honored practice, and the very heart of capitalism.
So you are fully supportive of the Bush program also? Since these workers will not be here illegally, they can report such dangerous conditions or violations of the law by employers without fear of getting into legal trouble themselves.
You seem to be evaluating the proposed program (legal guest workers) by the same criteria as the current situation (illegal immigrants). The two are not the same.
Yeah, just like CFR and Prescription Drugs never got through congress. Franklin Delano Bush leaned on the conservatives and got his way. They will not stand up to him no matter what he wants done.
Bush isn't stupid. That's an act to get people to underestimate him. He is cunning, ruthless, and so slick he makes Clinton look like an amateur. He will get what he wants here. The only question is can the conservatives modify the plan enough to minimize the damage this will do to the country.
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