[JasonC]

The Chinese are not Romans. They are not going to win a battle for the Taiwan strait with grappling hooks and boarding parties.

They want a navy big enough to defeat Taiwan if we don't show up. That is what it is for. If it was also the equal of India's or Japan's, they would count themselves one of the major regional players off their landmass as well as one it. That is clearly what they are after.

They do not remotely have the base or the ability to challenge even one of those yet, let alone all of them, united and led by us. We could blow all four out of the water tomorrow without breaking a sweat. And that is not going to change, not even in 10-20 years.

What might change is US willingness to endanger trade with China, or go to war over Taiwan. That and a navy big enough to intimidate Taiwan is the obvious ambition behind it.

They might even be stupid enough to take on the USN, even if they think we will show - though the most likely way a clash might arise is if they think we won't, but are wrong. If a clash does arise, however, with the USN involved, the Chinese navy will be about as effective against our stuff as Iraqi armor was against M-1s and JDAMs.

[Cronos]

I brought up the Roman point to demonstrate that a clever power can overcome it's shortcomings. The Chinese navy is woefully inadequate even compared to Japan, India and Australia, but the Taiwan strait isn't that far away and China can intimidate it's other neighbours by it's land power.

you're very right about our own naval power. We can literally take on the entire world in a naval battle and win. This won't change in the next decade, but beyond 2020, all bets are off. Our army is better than others, but nowhere as dominating as our navy. our airforce is in between in terms of dominance