As a lifetime student of the political processes, I can absolutely assure you that this is very far from certain. There are a great many imponderables. Frankly, I think that Bush will get somewhere between 39 and 61% of the vote, but at this juncture, with a very, very unpredictable 10+ months to go, anyone who tries to be more definite than that is whistling in the dark. For example, Goldwater had already passed JFK in some polls, right before the assassination. He ended up with only 39%. For example, the Senior Bush appeared unbeatable, the year before the election. The rest, there is history. Lincoln appeared headed for defeat in 1864 until some major victories gave him greatly enhanced credibility.
Those who believe that the victory in Iraq will be a plus next year, are not considering all of the factors, there either. For example, the Cox ticket, which reflected the Wilsonian legacy, less than two years after the victory in World War I--I think every rational person will concede that World War I was a bigger event than the war in Iraq--didn't even get near to that 39%, I have given as the bottom of the likely range.
The writer has given rather compelling reasons for many of us to look elsewhere--not in 2008, but starting here and now. He underestimates the power of his own argument.
William Flax Return Of The Gods Web Site
I had hoped that in 2003, President Bush would make some concessions to the Conservatives, who gave him his edge in 2000. I have waited throughout the year, for that concession. There has been none. Indeed, he has only acted decisively and effectively, when he was advancing the ideology of the Left--as with the Medicare drug extension;--as with having Americans, as opposed to Iraqi oil, fund a rebuilding of Iraq;--as with his continued failure to effectively seal the Southern border. I have waited, throughout this year, for some reason to support his reelection, and he has failed to provide it.
While he could use the "bully pulpit" to expand Medicare, and put together a bipartisan alliance to extend that clearly unconstitutional program; he has failed to use the bully pulpit to put together a bipartisan alliance, to get his more Conservative Judicial appointees approved. He has twisted arms for what was important to the Left; he has not twisted arms to put Conservatives on the Bench--his promise in 2000 to all of us.
But enough. He has another 8 hours to demonstrate that he really wants the vote of traditional Conservatives. I will not criticize the man further, at this time.
On the other hand, the entire Democratic field are absurd; one more ridiculous than the next. But America is simply too important to vote for the lesser of two evils. I cannot and will not vote for evil, under any label, for any man to succeed into the office of George Washington, as President of the United States.
William Flax