US oil imports 'to hit 70% of demand by 2025'

The Financial Times ^ | December 17 2003 | Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington

[Willie Green]

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.

The US Energy Department on Tuesday said that US dependence on foreign oil would increase at a faster pace than the government had previously forecast.

The latest estimates are unwelcome news for the Bush administration, which has prioritised reducing US reliance on foreign energy.

Net oil imports are expected to rise to 70 per cent of total US petroleum demand by 2025, according to the department.

The new Annual Energy Outlook 2004 report says the US is being forced to increase oil imports to accommodate growing demand amid declining domestic supply. In 2002, net imports of oil were 54 per cent.

In Congress, Republicans have completed work on a comprehensive energy bill that the administration says would help alleviate the growing dependence on overseas energy.

The House of Representatives passed the legislation last month but it has stalled in the Senate after several Republicans sided with the Democrats to block the bill from coming to a vote.

According to the report, US energy demand would increase by an annual average of 1.5 per cent through to 2025.

The report expects electric generation to rely increasingly on coal for fuel.

By 2025 the share of coal in electric generation would have increased from the current 50 per cent to 54 per cent. The relatively low cost of fossil-fired generation is also expected to discourage the development of renewable technologies, the report says.

At the same time the report says natural gas demand would decline while prices are expected to rise.

Total US natural gas supply is expected to grow to 31,300bn cubic feet in 2025. Domestic production of natural gas is forecast to rise by over a quarter to 24,100bn cubic feet by 2025.

The Energy Department projects that carbon dioxide emissions would increase by an annual 1.5 per cent to 2025, when they would reach more than 8bn tons.

But carbon intensity, which measures emissions against economic growth, is expected to decline by 1.5 per cent in the same period.

The administration has come under fire from environmental groups for not being more aggressive in tackling rising emissions of carbon dioxide, which many scientists think are partly to blame for rising temperatures worldwide.

[Willie Green]

U.S. Petroleum & Crude Oil Overview
(thousand barrels per day)

	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000
U.S. Crude Oil Production	7,035	7,804	9,637	8,375	8,597	8,971	7,355	6,560	5,834
U.S. Petroleum Imports	1,815	2,468	3,419	6,056	6,909	5,067	8,018	8,835	11,093
Total	8,850	10,272	13,056	14,431	15,506	14,038	15,373	15,395	16,927
Imports as % of Total	20.5	24.0	26.2	42.0	44.6	36.1	52.2	57.4	65.5

Dang idiots in Congress have been lying to the American People for over 3 decades.
Time to vote "no confidence" in ALL of 'em. Throw the bums out.

[beckett]

Alarmist hogwash. Here's a good rule of thumb: Whenever somebody tries to tell you what the world will be like 22 years hence, RUN.

[Truth666]

In May 2004 oil imports will reach 85% ... unbelievable but true.

[WOSG]

We are producing less because the govt forbids drilling in the major oil fields that are left: ANWR, off the coast of Cali, etc.

ANWR alone has about 15 billion barrels, maybe more. That's 10% of our supply for about 15 years.

If we opened our own lands up to drilling again, that 70% could be reduced by 15-20 percentage points over a decade or two.

Also, if we dont want fossil fuels, lets develop nuclear power.

[lelio]

What happened in 1985 to cause the upward trend to go downwards?

[Truth666]

The table is crap. In this business you can say whatever you want.

[capitan_refugio]

Imports will hit the 70% mark a little sooner than that.

The United States has abundant resources (unproven but likely oil and natural gas deposits) but quickly declining proven reserves. Many of the largest fields are already in secondary and tertiary production.

New areas, particularly offshore California, Florida, and Alaska need to be opened soon!

[capitan_refugio]

In the early 1980's, many of the older, giant and supergiant fields in the US were put into enhanced recovery programs. For instance, a systematic steaming program was initiated in the 5-billion barrel Midway-Sunset Field of the San Joachin Valley in California. Steaming mobilzed the "heavy" (low viscosity) oil there and incresed incremental production. But once a field is stimulated and production is increased, in the absense of new drilling, the natural decline returns.

[stevem]

Here's a good rule of thumb: Whenever somebody tries to tell you what the world will be like 22 years hence, RUN.

This is surely the case. I think you would be equally justified in predicting panic among OPEC countries because of improving technology in the arena of fuel cells. Many of the boys in OPEC don't have much to offer the world except buckets of oil.

[Atlas Sneezed]

The more of THEIR oil we consume, the more we keep ours ready for when it is needed.

[AmericanVictory]

True, we are making every possible effort to assure that fuel cells, along with getting all the oil we leave in the ground, will not be developed in a timely fashion. Let us praise our leadership and our Department of Energy. Starting with one third dependence, with their guidance and leadership we are now two-thirds dependent. Great job, guys!

[boris]

Again, I encourage you to look up "methane hydrates" and "methane clathrates" via google.

The U.S. has vast reserves of coal and shale oil, which are presently uneconomic to convert to liquid form. If the price of imported oil rises, this will cease to be true, and these reserves will be exploited.

With sufficient nuclear power, you can manufacture enough synthetic fuel to last several centuries.

--Boris

[Truth666]

One of the most instructive threads in FR

[Truth666]

Indonesia is since March the first OPEC member to become a netto oil importer - made public only May 17
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1137379/posts

[tm22721]

I am reminded of that infamous line from Jaws.

We will need a bigger military.

BUMP

[Truth666]

Crude oil surges above $46 a barrel

[RightWhale]

Net oil imports are expected to rise to 70 per cent of total US petroleum demand by 2025

LOL. They might wish they could import so much. So cheaply.

[Truth666]

Oct. 14 - Distillate inventories fell 2.5 million barrels, or 2 percent, to 120.9 million, the lowest since the week ended July 23. Heating oil stockpiles declined 1.2 million barrels, or 2.3 percent, to 50 million barrels.
Would somebody calculate the percent to check if we already reached 2025 ?

[Willie Green]

Would somebody calculate the percent to check if we already reached 2025 ?

U.S. Petroleum & Crude Oil Overview
(thousand barrels per day)

	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000
U.S. Crude Oil Production	7,035	7,804	9,637	8,375	8,597	8,971	7,355	6,560	5,834
U.S. Petroleum Imports	1,815	2,468	3,419	6,056	6,909	5,067	8,018	8,835	11,093
Total	8,850	10,272	13,056	14,431	15,506	14,038	15,373	15,395	16,927
Imports as % of Total	20.5	24.0	26.2	42.0	44.6	36.1	52.2	57.4	65.5

Here is some data I pulled together some time ago.
It looks like the data source links still work, so you should be able to access the detailed information for the more recent years up to 2003. I hope that helps.

[Willie Green]

Oooops! I already posted that to this thread.
No harm repeating it, I suppose,
but you sure threw me a curveball by pingin' this one up out of the archives!