Posted on 12/04/2003 7:21:36 AM PST by Rams82
Threatens Trade War and End to Korean Peace Talks
China is warning the United States to make a choice between South Korea and Taiwan. The warning is a veiled threat of a choice between war and peace in Asia.
On Dec. 9, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is scheduled to visit the White House. Wen is expected to demand that the U.S. end its support of Taiwan. If no such U.S. cooperation is forthcoming, then China is threatening to impose stiff tariffs on U.S.-made goods and to cancel the five-way peace talks with North Korea.
China also told Taiwan it ran the risk of war if it pushed toward independence. Beijing wants to prevent the Taiwanese from voting on a choice between joining the communist mainland or seeking independence.
The official China Daily stated that U.S.-Sino relations were at an all-time high but added that the relationship was being risked by "renegade" forces. The China Daily also said China and America shared trade and strategic interests that were being threatened by the move toward independence in Taiwan.
"The ambiguous U.S. strategy across the Taiwan Straits only serves to encourage the island's separatists and jeopardize the one-China policy as well as the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations," stated the Chinese diplomats.
China also warned the United States to stop selling weapons to Taiwan and to honor its commitment to the "one-China" policy.
"Only by doing so can the interests of both China and the United States be safeguarded and peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits be maintained," stated the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.
Crisis in Asia
Despite the warning, the Taiwanese Parliament passed a bill allowing the people to vote in an open election to choose between communist rule and independence. The warning from Beijing also brought swift reaction from U.S. sources.
"There are now two rapidly intersecting dangers for Taiwan and America. First, the PRC [People’s Republic of China, or communist China] appears to be preparing for some kind of use of force in the wake of the Taiwan Referendum bill's passage. It could be intimidation, or it could also be much worse," stated Rick Fisher, a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
"Second, there are forces in the Bush White House who believe that use of force against Taiwan, or indeed a war, can be avoided by giving Beijing a concession, let’s say publicly disavowing U.S. protection for Taiwan if it pursues independence," stated Fisher.
"On top of all else, we now have the prospects for a real crisis on the Taiwan Strait. It is also necessary more than ever that the U.S. stand firm and not buckle in the face of threats by dictators. No amount of concessions by the U.S. can stop the war for which China is preparing against Taiwan. We have to make crystal clear to the Communist dictators in Beijing that their dictatorship will end if they kill the democracy on Taiwan. If we can't make that message stick, then America will suffer enormous consequences," concluded Fisher.
Beijing Promises
Despite the harsh rhetoric from Beijing, there is ample evidence that China is unwilling to adhere to any peace agreements. For over a decade China has stated that it would live up to its treaty commitments and not export ballistic missile technology.
China was sanctioned by the Bush Sr. administration in 1992 for selling nuclear-tipped M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The Clinton administration lifted most of the sanctions in 1993 and 1994 after Beijing agreed to cease its exports.
However, China did not stop selling M-11 missiles to Pakistan and began to expand its exports to include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea. Although the Clinton administration warned China to adhere to its international treaties, the White House did nothing to sanction Beijing for the missile sales.
In June 2003, President George W. Bush imposed strict sanctions against China for exporting ballistic missile parts and technology to Iran. The sanctions include a total ban on imports from Norinco, a major Chinese arms company, and a continuation of the ban on satellite and space technology sales to Beijing.
Chinese Missile Exports
The Central Intelligence Agency's most recent report to Congress has painted an alarming picture of growing ballistic missile capabilities among American adversaries, fueled by Beijing.
The CIA report, which covers international ballistic missile developments from January to June 2003, lists Iran, North Korea and Libya as primary states of missile concern.
Iran, the report states, has continued to receive assistance in missile "equipment, technology, and expertise" from China, North Korea and Russia.
"Libya continued to depend on foreign assistance – particularly from Serbian, Indian, Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese entities – for its ballistic missile development programs," the report states.
According to the CIA, North Korea has advanced its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, and its "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2 – capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload – may be ready for flight-testing."
Space Mission Prelude to War
In addition to selling ballistic missile technology to Pyongyang, Beijing is also expected to share its space technology with North Korea.
The film-return capsule of the so-called "peaceful" Chinese FSW-18 satellite arrived on Earth on Nov. 21. The FSW-18 capsule was recovered by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in central Sichuan province after spending 18 days in space photographing Taiwan, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
The FSW-18, touted by Beijing as a peaceful civilian research satellite, was actually a medium-resolution Chinese army reconnaissance satellite. The images of Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. defenses are intended to update the PLA target database.
Beijing is expected to share the photographs with North Korean dictator Kim Jung-il. The photos will allow both China and North Korea to more accurately target missiles against allied forces in Asia.
Japan's GDP could not overtake America's in the early 1990s but came close to doing so: $5 tril. vs. $6 tril. The reason Japan couldn't do so was because its population (125 mil.) is less than half of America's (290 mil.). Had Japan had a population as big as America's, it would have been able to overtake the U.S. The bigger a country's population, the greater its GDP potential generally, because the more workers a country has, the more output it can produce. Unlike Japan's GDP potential, China's GDP is not limited by population size. On a purchasing-power parity basis, China's GDP is already about $6.5 tril. Just within the next two decades, China's GDP will exceed America's. It's true China's banking system is unhealthy. But so is Japan's and that didn't stop Japan from having a $5 tril. GDP in the early 1990s or still have about a $5 tril. GDP today. And despite its banking problems, China does have money to spare to loan to America by the purchase of US Treasury bonds.
Total trade maybe, but certainly not exports. Where are you getting your figures from? The US total exports are around $800 billion.
Use this link. It was posted on Free Republic.
I don't share your sanguine evaluation of the Communist regime's ability to enact economic reforms even compard to third world regimes. China has indeed benefited from foreign investment, in fact, they have the 4th highest foreign debt in the world. The Economist rates China 31st in Global competitiveness with the US being number 1. In terms of the innovation index, China is not among the top 44; information and communications technology index not rated among the top 44; total expenditures on R&D as a percent of GDP-China is 26th. The US is 5th
It remains to be seen how China's polity will evolve as it becomes more prosperous and more dependent on global trade. Time is on our side as long as we contain their military. There will be more Tian'anmen Squares in the future. Communist governments have not proven to be havens or bastions of capitalism.
Japan, Korea, etc. didn't score high in competitiveness or innovation several decades ago either. For that matter, America didn't score high about 100 years ago either. As manufacturing continues to flow into China, however, it too will gradually improve over time. Microsoft's Steve Ballmer recently said China's low wages aren't its primary threat but the fact it graduates more computer science graduates than any other country. In America itself, the next generation of America's own science college professors will be Chinese and Indian.
I read recently that China actually has very low foreign debt because, among other things, China's currency is non-covertible so foreigners cannot buy Chinese debt denominated in the yuan. In any case, China's got enough money to spare to loan America money to fund its budget deficits.
History is fluid. Americans think America has been #1 since the beginning of time, but 100 years ago, America wasn't even considered one of the great powers of its time. The UK, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Russia, and France were all the leading powers, while America and Japan were the "emerging" economies, just like how China is considered today. Over time in history, countries can play musical chairs. One thing is for sure: no country can maintain its dominance forever, especially one burdened with neverending, empire-killing war debts.
The $30-35 billion between Hong Kong and the PRC is about right for our 2002 combined exports.
Keep in mind though that between Taiwan and Japan, they import more than twice that much from the US.
With Korea included they import about 3 times as much as a combined Hong Kong-PRC alliance.
This is also with the rest of Asia in the economic funk. The PRC is booming by their own admission. When the rest of Asia recovers (still from 1998) combined, they will dwarf China's consumption of US exports.
I doubt if there was such a thing as an index measuring competitiveness and innovation 100 years ago, but I think the US would have rated quite highly. The middle and late 19th century was a golden age for American invention. For example, the telephone (1876), the light bulb (1880), the telegraph (1884), the sewing machine (1853), and the airplane (1903)are just a few inventions that changed the world. In regards to the intellectual potential of the Chinese, I remember someone saying that he would take our Chinese (including Taiwan) against the PRC anytime. If we stop giving them technology so their rockets wouldn't explode on takeoff, they wouldn't be so advanced regardless of their domestic computer science graduates. Maybe we should bar them from attending Cal Tech and MIT.
Re foreign debt: The Economist lists it as $149.8 billion, 4th largest in the world. China is paying an annual debt service of $21.7 billion to pay on its foreign debt, 5th largest in the world. The US is not listed in the top 48 in the amount of foreign debt so China's investment in the US must not be all that significant
Forever is a long time. No one has claimed that America will always be dominant, but comparing China to the US and Japan is a bit premature. Ther bottom line is that China has a long way to go to become a devolped country let alone a superpower. They are not ten feet tall anymore than the Soviet Union was. I once heard someone say that the Soviet Union was either the most developed underdeveloped country in the world, or the most underdeveloped developed country in the world. Based on a visit to Beijing a few years ago, I think that applies to the PRC today.
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