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China Warns U.S.: War or Peace
Newsmax ^ | Thursday, Dec. 4, 2003 | Charles R. Smith

Posted on 12/04/2003 7:21:36 AM PST by Rams82

Threatens Trade War and End to Korean Peace Talks

China is warning the United States to make a choice between South Korea and Taiwan. The warning is a veiled threat of a choice between war and peace in Asia.

On Dec. 9, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is scheduled to visit the White House. Wen is expected to demand that the U.S. end its support of Taiwan. If no such U.S. cooperation is forthcoming, then China is threatening to impose stiff tariffs on U.S.-made goods and to cancel the five-way peace talks with North Korea.

China also told Taiwan it ran the risk of war if it pushed toward independence. Beijing wants to prevent the Taiwanese from voting on a choice between joining the communist mainland or seeking independence.

The official China Daily stated that U.S.-Sino relations were at an all-time high but added that the relationship was being risked by "renegade" forces. The China Daily also said China and America shared trade and strategic interests that were being threatened by the move toward independence in Taiwan.

"The ambiguous U.S. strategy across the Taiwan Straits only serves to encourage the island's separatists and jeopardize the one-China policy as well as the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations," stated the Chinese diplomats.

China also warned the United States to stop selling weapons to Taiwan and to honor its commitment to the "one-China" policy.

"Only by doing so can the interests of both China and the United States be safeguarded and peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits be maintained," stated the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.

Crisis in Asia

Despite the warning, the Taiwanese Parliament passed a bill allowing the people to vote in an open election to choose between communist rule and independence. The warning from Beijing also brought swift reaction from U.S. sources.

"There are now two rapidly intersecting dangers for Taiwan and America. First, the PRC [People’s Republic of China, or communist China] appears to be preparing for some kind of use of force in the wake of the Taiwan Referendum bill's passage. It could be intimidation, or it could also be much worse," stated Rick Fisher, a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

"Second, there are forces in the Bush White House who believe that use of force against Taiwan, or indeed a war, can be avoided by giving Beijing a concession, let’s say publicly disavowing U.S. protection for Taiwan if it pursues independence," stated Fisher.

"On top of all else, we now have the prospects for a real crisis on the Taiwan Strait. It is also necessary more than ever that the U.S. stand firm and not buckle in the face of threats by dictators. No amount of concessions by the U.S. can stop the war for which China is preparing against Taiwan. We have to make crystal clear to the Communist dictators in Beijing that their dictatorship will end if they kill the democracy on Taiwan. If we can't make that message stick, then America will suffer enormous consequences," concluded Fisher.

Beijing Promises

Despite the harsh rhetoric from Beijing, there is ample evidence that China is unwilling to adhere to any peace agreements. For over a decade China has stated that it would live up to its treaty commitments and not export ballistic missile technology.

China was sanctioned by the Bush Sr. administration in 1992 for selling nuclear-tipped M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The Clinton administration lifted most of the sanctions in 1993 and 1994 after Beijing agreed to cease its exports.

However, China did not stop selling M-11 missiles to Pakistan and began to expand its exports to include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea. Although the Clinton administration warned China to adhere to its international treaties, the White House did nothing to sanction Beijing for the missile sales.

In June 2003, President George W. Bush imposed strict sanctions against China for exporting ballistic missile parts and technology to Iran. The sanctions include a total ban on imports from Norinco, a major Chinese arms company, and a continuation of the ban on satellite and space technology sales to Beijing.

Chinese Missile Exports

The Central Intelligence Agency's most recent report to Congress has painted an alarming picture of growing ballistic missile capabilities among American adversaries, fueled by Beijing.

The CIA report, which covers international ballistic missile developments from January to June 2003, lists Iran, North Korea and Libya as primary states of missile concern.

Iran, the report states, has continued to receive assistance in missile "equipment, technology, and expertise" from China, North Korea and Russia.

"Libya continued to depend on foreign assistance – particularly from Serbian, Indian, Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese entities – for its ballistic missile development programs," the report states.

According to the CIA, North Korea has advanced its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, and its "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2 – capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload – may be ready for flight-testing."

Space Mission Prelude to War

In addition to selling ballistic missile technology to Pyongyang, Beijing is also expected to share its space technology with North Korea.

The film-return capsule of the so-called "peaceful" Chinese FSW-18 satellite arrived on Earth on Nov. 21. The FSW-18 capsule was recovered by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in central Sichuan province after spending 18 days in space photographing Taiwan, Japan and the Korean peninsula.

The FSW-18, touted by Beijing as a peaceful civilian research satellite, was actually a medium-resolution Chinese army reconnaissance satellite. The images of Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. defenses are intended to update the PLA target database.

Beijing is expected to share the photographs with North Korean dictator Kim Jung-il. The photos will allow both China and North Korea to more accurately target missiles against allied forces in Asia.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; korea; taiwan
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To: Rams82
In 1998 or maybe it was 1999 China threatened to nuke Los Angeles if we came to Tawains aid. "At the end of the day America cares more about Los Angels than Taiwan" was what was said in para-phrase

Well, do you?

41 posted on 12/04/2003 8:15:34 AM PST by Gunslingr3
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To: Rams82
One of these days....
42 posted on 12/04/2003 8:16:06 AM PST by knak (wasknaknowknid)
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To: Rams82
Yes & no, i don't think that they would hit us prior to a conflict with N.K. but if & when we bust their chops then China may very well hit us. There are plans on the table, anyone with enough gray matter can see enough between the lines to understand that China has every intention of hitting us. But first they'll bleed us dry at the retail stores, then all bet's are off.
43 posted on 12/04/2003 8:16:13 AM PST by HELLRAISER II (Give us another tax break Mr. President)
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To: Rams82
One China? That was bill clinton and his white towerists. GWBush said if China invades taiwan the USA will defend.

Seems like China is trying to help the Clinton election efforts.
44 posted on 12/04/2003 8:17:19 AM PST by longtermmemmory (Vote!)
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To: kabar
In fact China is in 10th place behind the Netherlands, Italy, and Canada.

They're actually in 4th place now, having just leapfrogged Britain & France. In fact they're closing fast on Japan. What you say was true 5 years ago.

45 posted on 12/04/2003 8:17:50 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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To: cars for sale
Go back a few years. Kruschev in a joking manner told Mao that he could wipe out China in a matter of minutes. Mao replied, you may kill 500 million of us but the other billionwill be coming for you. Nikita got the message.
46 posted on 12/04/2003 8:21:51 AM PST by cynicom
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To: jeremiah
I don't know if Africa has anything to do with it, but anyone paying attention in World Wide affairs can see the obvious hatred for the U.S. in our enemies as well as several of our supposed allies. Even Austrailia and the U.K. have a large population of anti-American citizens. For that matter, we have alot of Domestic anti-American citizens right here in the states.
47 posted on 12/04/2003 8:22:14 AM PST by HELLRAISER II (Give us another tax break Mr. President)
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To: HELLRAISER II
But first they'll bleed us dry at the retail stores, then all bet's are off.

WALMART!....among many others.

48 posted on 12/04/2003 8:24:15 AM PST by GrandMoM ("Without prayer, the hand of GOD stops, BUT, with prayer the hand of GOD moves !!!)
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To: kabar
The economic dependency increasingly runs both ways. China's now the second-biggest buyer of US government debt, so in a sense, they're financing our war on terror even as they help our enemies. And much of our retail economy depends on access to cheap Chinese imports.
49 posted on 12/04/2003 8:26:06 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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To: HELLRAISER II
Yeah, it would really suck if we couldn't buy rubber Godzillas or those trashy icicle lights at Wal-Mart...Next thing you know, we might have to depend on Indonesia or the Phillipines to provide American business with virtual slave labor...
50 posted on 12/04/2003 8:28:15 AM PST by Wombat101 (Sanitized for YOUR protection....)
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To: Filibuster_60
They're actually in 4th place now, having just leapfrogged Britain & France. In fact they're closing fast on Japan. What you say was true 5 years ago.

I am using the Economist's "World in Figiures" pocket edition 2003. The figures include visible and invisible amounts. For "visible" traders, China is 9th. In compiling the data, the Economist was using the latest data available as of December 31, 2000. What is China's percentage of world trade now and what is our's according to your information?

51 posted on 12/04/2003 8:34:50 AM PST by kabar
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To: cars for sale
You can dream all you want amigo but thanks to Clinton and his band of free "traitors" China acquired significant amounts of US technology that fast forwarded their military capabilities significantly. Anyone who believes their motives will not pose a threat to our peace and security someday is a fool......respectfully.
52 posted on 12/04/2003 8:38:01 AM PST by american spirit (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION = NATIONAL SUICIDE)
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To: HELLRAISER II
Good point. The increasing boldness of rivals like China has something to do with our ever-declining popularity in nominally allied nations in both Europe and Asia. China's seized the initiative in Southeast Asia, offering an agenda of economic cooperation while Bush can't talk much beyond fighting terror. Asians (and many Europeans) despise Bush's visits to their countries with an army of heavily-armed security guards, not bothering to mix with the locals and treating their hosts as little more than lieutenants in fighting terror.

China's new leadership has won the Asian popularity contest against the US, hands-down. They're confident that the world is on their side when it comes to Taiwan. Anyone who says there's no downside to the world's rising anti-Americanism is daydreaming.
53 posted on 12/04/2003 8:38:38 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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To: Rams82
Clintonism.
54 posted on 12/04/2003 8:43:17 AM PST by onedoug
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To: Filibuster_60
It amazes me that our fellow country-man (even though they're DemocRats) can't see that we're in the cross hairs.
55 posted on 12/04/2003 8:43:17 AM PST by HELLRAISER II (Give us another tax break Mr. President)
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To: kabar
Things change quickly. China's $800 billion trade this year compares to just $500 billion in 2000. No other country's commercial activity is increasing at such a pace. Exports will exceed $400 billion this year, which isn't far behind Japan. China's imports are growing even faster than exports and on this basis it's probable they'll leapfrog Japan rather soon, maybe within just 5 years. Only US & Germany will be higher on the list.
56 posted on 12/04/2003 8:45:52 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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To: Filibuster_60
The US is China's biggest export destination accounting for over 20% of the value of its total exports. Hong Kong and Japan are next. The U.S.'s biggest export destination is Canada(22.9%). China is way down the list in terms of being an export destination or buyer of US goods and services.

In terms of imports, China is the 4th largest source (8.2%) behind Canada (19%), Japan (12%), and Mexico (11.2%). If push came to shove in terms of cheap imports, I believe Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, South America, etc. could furnish us with the same goods just as cheaply should we get into a trade war with China. We would have to shift our investments to those countries. China remains much more dependent on US trade than vice-versa.

57 posted on 12/04/2003 8:49:02 AM PST by kabar
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To: Filibuster_60
Projecting such trend lines well into the future is a mistake. When you have a huge economy such as ours, you will have smaller rates of increase, which makes the 8.2% rate for the last quarter so impressive. With an economy of about one-ninth of the US, China can have growth rates of 7%, but they will not be able to sustain them.

The same crowd that predicts the coming dominance of China in the world economy, was also the one in the nineties that projected a Japanese century. China's corrupt and antiquated banking system, its political system, and other factors do not bode well for the Chinese economy. Mark my words.

58 posted on 12/04/2003 8:58:27 AM PST by kabar
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To: kabar
China is set to overtake Mexico as the second-largest source of imports this year, if I'm not mistaken.

Sure, China'll get hit much badly in a trade war. At the current pace, however, the potential damage to our own economy in the short term will also be massive in the years ahead, particularly to the stock market which has up to $1 trillion of market cap dependent on cheap Chinese imports. Walmart for instance can't exist in its present form without China, and alone accounts for a huge swathe of the retail sector.

China's not the only source of cheap goods, but it has a definite competitive advantage over other third-world nations in overall terms. Land, water & electricity are dirt-cheap. Productive organization is effective and disciplined. Labor troubles are rare. Infrastructure is spanking new in many places. Cheap labor alone wouldn't explain the mass exodus of manufacturing facilities to China from other nations. Indonesia & Malaysia don't have their Shanghai's or Pearl River Deltas & they can't pop out of the ground overnight.
59 posted on 12/04/2003 9:04:21 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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To: kabar
Their growth obviously isn't sustainable at the current pace. Someday they'll have to fix up their financial system so they can finally float their currency with confidence. Only then should we consider China a true potential peer competitor. For the time being, though, it's becoming an integral part of the global supply chain.
60 posted on 12/04/2003 9:19:31 AM PST by Filibuster_60
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