Posted on 12/04/2003 7:21:36 AM PST by Rams82
Threatens Trade War and End to Korean Peace Talks
China is warning the United States to make a choice between South Korea and Taiwan. The warning is a veiled threat of a choice between war and peace in Asia.
On Dec. 9, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is scheduled to visit the White House. Wen is expected to demand that the U.S. end its support of Taiwan. If no such U.S. cooperation is forthcoming, then China is threatening to impose stiff tariffs on U.S.-made goods and to cancel the five-way peace talks with North Korea.
China also told Taiwan it ran the risk of war if it pushed toward independence. Beijing wants to prevent the Taiwanese from voting on a choice between joining the communist mainland or seeking independence.
The official China Daily stated that U.S.-Sino relations were at an all-time high but added that the relationship was being risked by "renegade" forces. The China Daily also said China and America shared trade and strategic interests that were being threatened by the move toward independence in Taiwan.
"The ambiguous U.S. strategy across the Taiwan Straits only serves to encourage the island's separatists and jeopardize the one-China policy as well as the political foundation of Sino-U.S. relations," stated the Chinese diplomats.
China also warned the United States to stop selling weapons to Taiwan and to honor its commitment to the "one-China" policy.
"Only by doing so can the interests of both China and the United States be safeguarded and peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits be maintained," stated the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.
Crisis in Asia
Despite the warning, the Taiwanese Parliament passed a bill allowing the people to vote in an open election to choose between communist rule and independence. The warning from Beijing also brought swift reaction from U.S. sources.
"There are now two rapidly intersecting dangers for Taiwan and America. First, the PRC [People’s Republic of China, or communist China] appears to be preparing for some kind of use of force in the wake of the Taiwan Referendum bill's passage. It could be intimidation, or it could also be much worse," stated Rick Fisher, a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
"Second, there are forces in the Bush White House who believe that use of force against Taiwan, or indeed a war, can be avoided by giving Beijing a concession, let’s say publicly disavowing U.S. protection for Taiwan if it pursues independence," stated Fisher.
"On top of all else, we now have the prospects for a real crisis on the Taiwan Strait. It is also necessary more than ever that the U.S. stand firm and not buckle in the face of threats by dictators. No amount of concessions by the U.S. can stop the war for which China is preparing against Taiwan. We have to make crystal clear to the Communist dictators in Beijing that their dictatorship will end if they kill the democracy on Taiwan. If we can't make that message stick, then America will suffer enormous consequences," concluded Fisher.
Beijing Promises
Despite the harsh rhetoric from Beijing, there is ample evidence that China is unwilling to adhere to any peace agreements. For over a decade China has stated that it would live up to its treaty commitments and not export ballistic missile technology.
China was sanctioned by the Bush Sr. administration in 1992 for selling nuclear-tipped M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The Clinton administration lifted most of the sanctions in 1993 and 1994 after Beijing agreed to cease its exports.
However, China did not stop selling M-11 missiles to Pakistan and began to expand its exports to include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and North Korea. Although the Clinton administration warned China to adhere to its international treaties, the White House did nothing to sanction Beijing for the missile sales.
In June 2003, President George W. Bush imposed strict sanctions against China for exporting ballistic missile parts and technology to Iran. The sanctions include a total ban on imports from Norinco, a major Chinese arms company, and a continuation of the ban on satellite and space technology sales to Beijing.
Chinese Missile Exports
The Central Intelligence Agency's most recent report to Congress has painted an alarming picture of growing ballistic missile capabilities among American adversaries, fueled by Beijing.
The CIA report, which covers international ballistic missile developments from January to June 2003, lists Iran, North Korea and Libya as primary states of missile concern.
Iran, the report states, has continued to receive assistance in missile "equipment, technology, and expertise" from China, North Korea and Russia.
"Libya continued to depend on foreign assistance – particularly from Serbian, Indian, Iranian, North Korean, and Chinese entities – for its ballistic missile development programs," the report states.
According to the CIA, North Korea has advanced its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, and its "multiple-stage Taepo Dong-2 – capable of reaching parts of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload – may be ready for flight-testing."
Space Mission Prelude to War
In addition to selling ballistic missile technology to Pyongyang, Beijing is also expected to share its space technology with North Korea.
The film-return capsule of the so-called "peaceful" Chinese FSW-18 satellite arrived on Earth on Nov. 21. The FSW-18 capsule was recovered by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in central Sichuan province after spending 18 days in space photographing Taiwan, Japan and the Korean peninsula.
The FSW-18, touted by Beijing as a peaceful civilian research satellite, was actually a medium-resolution Chinese army reconnaissance satellite. The images of Taiwanese, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. defenses are intended to update the PLA target database.
Beijing is expected to share the photographs with North Korean dictator Kim Jung-il. The photos will allow both China and North Korea to more accurately target missiles against allied forces in Asia.
Don't believe it. The Chinese have a huge trade surplus with the US. If they ever engaged in a trade war with the US, they would be committing economic suicide. In fact, trade is a huge lever for the US. To paraphrase an old Chinese saying, "Be careful what you threaten, you may get it."
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