Iranian Alert -- October 21, 2003 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD PING LIST

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

PS I have a daily ping list and a breaking news ping list. If you would like to receive alerts to these stories please let me know which list you would like to join.

Turkish Troops Kill Kurdish Rebel In Clash On Iran Border

October 21, 2003
Dow Jones Newswires
The Associated Press

ANKARA -- Turkish soldiers intercepted 20 Kurdish rebels early Tuesday as they attempted to sneak into Turkey from Iran, killing one guerrilla, the Anatolia news agency reported.

Turkish border patrols, using thermal cameras, detected the group near the border town of Caldiran as they sneaked into the country. The troops opened fire after the guerrillas refused to heed calls to surrender, killing one, the agency said. The rest of the guerrillas fled.

No military casualties were reported.

The rebels belonged to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which now goes by the name KADEK. The group fought a 15-year war for autonomy in southeastern Turkey. The fighting has claimed the lives of some 37,000 people.

Fighting has died down since 1999, when guerrilla leader Abdullah Ocalan was captured, but there has been a recent increase in clashes.

In a separate incident Tuesday in central Turkey, Turkish soldiers killed two leftist militants from the outlawed Marxist group, the Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front, or DHKP-C. One soldier was wounded in the clash near the central Anatolian town of Corum, Anatolia said.

The group, has carried out numerous bombings and armed attacks in Turkey with the aim of toppling the government and replacing it with a Marxist one.

http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2003102113060003&Take=1

Iran Nearing Nuclear Self-sufficiency

October 21, 2003
The Associated Press
Jerusalem Post

Iran will be able to produce its own nuclear weapons without outside help within a year if it completes its uranium enrichment program, the head of Israeli military intelligence said Tuesday.

An Iranian security official said Tuesday that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment and allow spot checks of a nuclear program it insists is peaceful, but he did not say when the suspension would begin or how long it would last.

Israeli officials charge that Iran is covertly acquiring nuclear arms know-how, at least some of it from countries of the former Soviet Union.

The Israeli military intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, told the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran is definitely working toward nuclear arms capability and will soon no longer need to seek help abroad.

"By the summer of 2004, Iran will have reached the point of no return in its attempts to develop nuclear weapons," a parliamentary official quoted Zeevi-Farkash as telling the committee.

The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany met Iran's President Mohammad Khatami on Tuesday to press him to meet an Oct. 31 deadline set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to prove Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program.

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was to fly to Germany Tuesday evening for talks with German officials, during which he would restate Israel's concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The United States strongly suspects Iran has a weapons program, and Washington has been lobbying fellow members of the IAEA board to declare the country in breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

If Iran fails to satisfy the IAEA, the U.N.-sponsored agency is expected to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council, which could impose sanctions.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1066715112601&p=1008596981749

Iran Nuclear Back Down

October 21, 2003
Reuters
Parisa Hafezi and Dominic Evans

Iran has agreed to snap inspections of its nuclear sites and to freeze uranium enrichment in what visiting EU foreign ministers have hailed as a promising start to removing doubts about Tehran's atomic aims.

But a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday Tehran would only halt uranium enrichment -- seen by Washington as the core of a possible bid for nuclear arms -- for as long as it saw fit.

British, French and German foreign ministers, who flew to Tehran with a carrot and stick approach aimed at convincing Iran to comply with an October 31 U.N. deadline to prove it has no atomic bomb ambitions, greeted the agreement as an important step forward rather than a breakthrough.

"It's been an important day's work but you can only judge its significance in time and through implementation," British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told reporters just before leaving the country after a series talks with Iranian officials.

The three European Union countries, taking a different approach to Washington's more inflexible stance towards Iran, recognised Iran's right to develop a nuclear energy programme and held out the prospect of technical help with it in future.

SIGN PROTOCOL BY NOVEMBER 20

Iran's Supreme National Security Council chief said Tehran would probably sign the Additional Protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on virtually unfettered, snap inspections before the November 20 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency board.

According to the declaration agreed on in Tehran, Iran also agreed to implement the protocol before it has been ratified.

But Rohani was non-committal on how long Iran would maintain the freeze on uranium enrichment activities.

"It could last for one day or one year, it depends on us," he said. "As long as Iran thinks that this suspension is beneficial for us it will continue and whenever we don't want it we will end it."

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel reactors but if enriched further, can be used in warheads.

The IAEA has found arms-grade enriched uranium at two facilities in Iran this year. Iran blames the findings on contamination from parts it bought abroad on the black market.

Experts said the Tehran agreement, while a positive step, did not mean Iran was in the clear.

"Iran is responding and I think it calls for the U.S. to at least rethink its isolationist policy for Iran," former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright told Reuters.

But he added: "A freeze is good, but what we need is a halt to the uranium enrichment programme if there is going to be a solution to this crisis," said Albright, now president of the Institute for Science and International Security.

AN IMPORTANT DAY

French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin told a news conference: "We have achieved this morning important progress and we found a basis for agreement on the three pending issues."

These were: immediate signature and early implementation of additional protocol; full cooperation with the IAEA and suspension of all uranium enrichment.

According to the Tehran declaration, the EU ministers in turn recognised Iran's right to develop a civilian nuclear energy programme and held out the prospect of "easier access to modern technology and supplies in a range of areas".

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said: "This is an important day... This agreement is opening a serious process to resolve the nuclear issue between Iran and the international community."

But a Western diplomat in Vienna said it might not be enough to prevent a negative report by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei in November. "This doesn't mean it's over by a long shot," he said.

ElBaradei has warned Iran's case could be sent to the U.N. Security Council if he cannot verify by November that Tehran has no secret nuclear arms programme.

In a sign that Tuesday's agreement will not meet with universal acceptance in Iran, where hardliners accuse the IAEA of being Washington's puppet, nearly 100 students gathered outside the palace complex where the meetings took place.

"Shame on your hypocrisy, imperialist ambassadors," read one banner, while a poster called on Iran to follow North Korea's example and pull out of the nuclear NPT altogether.

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=391666&section=news

Iran Defuses Nuclear Crisis - For Now

October 21, 2003
Mark Trevelyan
Reuters

Iran has defused the immediate crisis over its nuclear ambitions but is far from laying to rest U.S. concerns that it could build the bomb some time in the future.

In a deal with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, Tehran said on Tuesday it would accept intrusive, short-notice inspection of nuclear sites and suspend production of enriched uranium which is needed to make atomic weapons.

In return, it won the prospect of access to Western technology and supplies -- something it has long sought -- to help it develop a civilian nuclear energy programme.

And it held onto a strong bargaining chip by making clear it could resume the enrichment programme whenever it liked.

''The statement is not a deal that ends Iran's nuclear programme. It's a deal that strengthens safeguards, and it suspends the enrichment programme, but it's only a partial measure in the sense that Iran has not agreed to give up the enrichment programme,'' said Gary Samore of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

''This will not be enough to satisfy the United States. It will be enough to buy time,'' said Rosemary Hollis of the Royal Institute for International Affairs.

The White House gave an initial cautious welcome to Iran's suspension of its uranium enrichment programme.

But diplomatic and security analysts said it would be less happy about the offer of technical help for a civilian nuclear programme in a country that President George W. Bush last year branded alongside Iraq and North Korea as part of an ''axis of evil.''

On the other hand, Washington was unlikely to stand in the way of Tuesday's deal because there were no better options available right now.

''I would bet the United States will complain about this bargain, but will not do anything very actively trying to prevent it,'' said Gary Sick of Columbia University in New York, a former White House Iran policy chief.

''The bottom line could be very, very helpful. Let's say if Germany, France or Great Britain provide some nuclear technology to Iran -- they would be in a position to monitor it and to make sure how it was used.''

Sick noted Washington would more readily trust its European allies to carry out this monitoring than it would trust Russia, whose help in constructing a new Iranian reactor has periodically strained ties with the Bush administration.

DOES IRAN WANT THE BOMB?

The analysts said that whether or not Iran had secretly decided to go ahead and develop a nuclear weapon, its actions to date -- including Tuesday's agreement -- were designed to keep that option open.

''They see developing some sort of (weapons) capability as in the national interest, ultimately, and have yet to be convinced that it isn't. They want to keep that option open to them,'' Hollis said.

''Ultimately they don't see any reason why they shouldn't have a nuclear weapons capability, especially since they see what's happened to North Korea: once you have it, all sorts of negotiations are possible and (U.S.) military action is less likely.''

Tuesday's announcement relaxed the tension surrounding an October 31 deadline by which Iran was to deliver proof to the International Atomic Energy Agency that its nuclear programme was peaceful.

Analysts said the IAEA board of governors may now give Tehran more time to deliver on its pledges, but some were concerned that the process of ratifying the accord could drag on for ages in the Iranian parliament.

And they noted that the United States is no closer to its objective of getting Iran to give up its uranium enrichment programme altogether.

''A freeze is good, but what we need is a halt to the uranium enrichment programme if there is going to be a solution to this crisis,'' said David Albright, head of the U.S.-based Institute for Science and International Security.

(Additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau)

http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/reuters10-21-094655.asp?reg=MIDEAST

Iran Bows to Europe Over Nuclear Crisis

October 21, 2003
Independent
Angus McDowall

Iran has agreed to more intrusive nuclear checks and to freeze its uranium enrichment programme in an important concession to the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany.

Jack Straw, Dominique de Villepin and Joschka Fischer persuaded Iran's hardline clerics to sign a protocol opening its nuclear programme to the outside world. The agreement means Iran has averted the threat of action by the United Nations, which was seen as a possibility if it failed to prove by the end of this month that it is not trying to build nuclear weapons.

In a joint statement after the meeting, the foreign ministers said the immediate situation could be resolved by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board.

The White House, which has accused Iran of developing a secret nuclear weapons programme, said the move could be a "positive step". Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, said: "What's most important is that Iran fully comply and now implement what they've committed to." The IAEA also said the decision was encouraging.

But Iran left itself the option of resuming uranium enrichment at any time. Hassan Rohani, head of the Supreme National Security Council, said: "We believe that stopping enriching uranium is totally unacceptable and we think nobody agrees with that in Iran." In return for its concessions, Iran is expected to gain access to European civilian nuclear technology. Although the statement said Iran would find access to technology easier after it complied with an additional protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which processes would be made available was not known.

But there is speculation that uranium could be enriched under international supervision. Fuel security is a key issue for Iran, which has been working to arrange a supply agreement with Russia.

The deal has been presented as a way of allowing Iran to sign the protocol without surrendering its sovereignty. In the past, Tehran has expressed fears that hostile powers could use the new system of checks to discover its military secrets.

"The protocol should not threaten our national security, national interests and national pride," said Dr Rohani.

Dr Rohani's key role in the negotiations shows that the decision to comply with the UN comes from the top of Iran's hardline élite. The three EU ministers later met President Mohammad Khatami and Kamal Kharrazi, the Foreign Affairs Minister.

The three European countries have been publicly pressing Iran to agree to UN demands while privately negotiating a way out of the deadlock. Their success is seen in Iran as a victory for Europe's critical engagement over the more aggressive stance employed by America. M. De Villepin said: "It is an important day for Europe because we are dealing here with a major issue. We are talking about proliferation, which as everyone knows, is a huge challenge to the world community."

The IAEA will expect Iran to provide answers to all its questions on nuclear facilities by 31 October. Mr Rohani also said Iran has been complying with the additional protocol in practice for the past month and would continue to comply. The protocol would be ratified by the Iranian parliament.

Mr Straw said: "The proof of the value of today will depend not just on the words in the communiqué ... but above all on the implementation of what has been agreed."

Not all Iranians are happy to see the crisis defused. Small numbers of students representing right-wing Islamic groups demonstrated outside the Foreign Ministry Conference Hall where the meeting was held yesterday. They may reflect the isolationist instincts of Iran's clerical leadership but on yesterday's evidence a more pragmatic approach carried the day.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=455855

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