Iran Defuses Nuclear Crisis - For Now
October 21, 2003
Mark Trevelyan
Reuters
Iran has defused the immediate crisis over its nuclear ambitions but is far from laying to rest U.S. concerns that it could build the bomb some time in the future.
In a deal with the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, Tehran said on Tuesday it would accept intrusive, short-notice inspection of nuclear sites and suspend production of enriched uranium which is needed to make atomic weapons.
In return, it won the prospect of access to Western technology and supplies -- something it has long sought -- to help it develop a civilian nuclear energy programme.
And it held onto a strong bargaining chip by making clear it could resume the enrichment programme whenever it liked.
''The statement is not a deal that ends Iran's nuclear programme. It's a deal that strengthens safeguards, and it suspends the enrichment programme, but it's only a partial measure in the sense that Iran has not agreed to give up the enrichment programme,'' said Gary Samore of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
''This will not be enough to satisfy the United States. It will be enough to buy time,'' said Rosemary Hollis of the Royal Institute for International Affairs.
The White House gave an initial cautious welcome to Iran's suspension of its uranium enrichment programme.
But diplomatic and security analysts said it would be less happy about the offer of technical help for a civilian nuclear programme in a country that President George W. Bush last year branded alongside Iraq and North Korea as part of an ''axis of evil.''
On the other hand, Washington was unlikely to stand in the way of Tuesday's deal because there were no better options available right now.
''I would bet the United States will complain about this bargain, but will not do anything very actively trying to prevent it,'' said Gary Sick of Columbia University in New York, a former White House Iran policy chief.
''The bottom line could be very, very helpful. Let's say if Germany, France or Great Britain provide some nuclear technology to Iran -- they would be in a position to monitor it and to make sure how it was used.''
Sick noted Washington would more readily trust its European allies to carry out this monitoring than it would trust Russia, whose help in constructing a new Iranian reactor has periodically strained ties with the Bush administration.
DOES IRAN WANT THE BOMB?
The analysts said that whether or not Iran had secretly decided to go ahead and develop a nuclear weapon, its actions to date -- including Tuesday's agreement -- were designed to keep that option open.
''They see developing some sort of (weapons) capability as in the national interest, ultimately, and have yet to be convinced that it isn't. They want to keep that option open to them,'' Hollis said.
''Ultimately they don't see any reason why they shouldn't have a nuclear weapons capability, especially since they see what's happened to North Korea: once you have it, all sorts of negotiations are possible and (U.S.) military action is less likely.''
Tuesday's announcement relaxed the tension surrounding an October 31 deadline by which Iran was to deliver proof to the International Atomic Energy Agency that its nuclear programme was peaceful.
Analysts said the IAEA board of governors may now give Tehran more time to deliver on its pledges, but some were concerned that the process of ratifying the accord could drag on for ages in the Iranian parliament.
And they noted that the United States is no closer to its objective of getting Iran to give up its uranium enrichment programme altogether.
''A freeze is good, but what we need is a halt to the uranium enrichment programme if there is going to be a solution to this crisis,'' said David Albright, head of the U.S.-based Institute for Science and International Security.
(Additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau)
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