Democrats
Bayh, Evan - IN, leans dem unless he runs for President, then this is a GOP lean.
Boxer, Barbara - CA - Safe
Breaux, John - LA - Safe
Daschle, Thomas - Dem lean, but I think he can be beat.
Dodd, Christopher - Safe
Dorgan, Byron - dem lean(What's with the Dakotas and dem senators?)
Edwards, John - KICK HIS ASS!!! - I think this a winnable seat.
Feingold, Russell - Dem lean, but he barely won last time
Graham, Bob - Safe
Hollings, Ernest - Almost lost in 98 in a strong dem year
Inouye, Daniel - safe
Leahy, Patrick - This jackass is safe unfortunatly
Lincoln, Blanche - dem lean, but a possible sleeper
Mikulski, Barbara - safe
Miller, Zell - safe if he runs, but if he steps down, major battle
Murray, Patty - dem lean Reid, Harry - barely squeaked by last time, one to watch Schumer, Charles - Safe Wyden, Ron - safe
Republicans
Bennett, Robert - safe
Bond, Christopher - lean GOP
Brownback, Sam - safe
Bunning, Jim - GOP lean
Campbell, Ben Nighthorse - safe
Crapo, Mike - safe
Fitzgerald, Peter - toss up depending on opponent
Grassley, Chuck - GOP lean
Gregg, Judd - safe
McCain, John - probably safe, although I hope he loses and I don't care to whom
Murkowski, Frank (elected AK Governor, will be filled by appointee) - Appointees are always tough to defend
Nickles, Don - safe
Shelby, Richard - safe
Specter, Arlen - safe
Voinovich, George - lean GOP
Personally, I think they underestimate Fitz. The 'RATs just won a near sweep of the statewide offices (they lost treasurer) by cashing in on our RINO Governor's corruption. But every Illinoian is accuately aware that Fitz hated our RINO governor more than anyone else.
Also factor in that we're talking like an $80 million personal wealth. That's how he easily outspend Mosely-Braun in '98 despite getting half as many campaign contributions as her. The IL DemocRATs actually have a bunch of spoiled rich kids who have NEVER held office trying to portray Fitz as someone who "bought" the election. Talk about hypocricy. The Dems can't cream Fitz with negative ads like they do with all the other GOP Senate candidates here. Fitz will be able to hit them back just as hard.
In any case, the likely Dems and the CURRENT odds of victory:
Gery Chico (D) - Ex-Chicago Board of Education President, Attorney & Ex-Chicago Mayoral Aide. Possible, but unlikely. Dems love "minorities", that might help.
Jim Houlihan (D) - Cook County Assessor & Ex-State Rep. Toss-up. He's pretty obscure but Houlihan is a Chicago machine politician that doesn't seem threatening and therefore it could be a repeat of 2002.
Blair Hull (D) - Investment Banker & Democratic Fundraiser. Unlikely. Liberal columnist Steve Neal's daring candidate is just an empty suit that gives tons of $$$ to party leaders so he can buy the nomination. He started an "exploratory" site for the 2004 Senate race before the 2002 election was over! Give it a rest, you unproven egomanic.
Dan Hynes (D) - State Comptroller Good possiblity of ousting Fitz. He's young, charismatic, and just easily won re-election to his office WITHOUT a good record because the GOP put up token opposition. He's another child of the Chicago machine and his daddy has friends in high places.
Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) - Congressman Again, possible but unlikely. He's more honest than Daddy and alot more likeable. But he's ultra-liberal and I can't see the soccer mommies in the suburbs voting for more black Democrats from Chicago.
Carol Moseley-Braun (D) - Ex-US Senator & Ex-US Ambassador to New Zealand Slim-to-none. They've done test polls and she's trailing by as much as 20 points in head-to-head matchups with Fitz again. Run Carol Run! I'll vote in the 'RAT primary just to ensure you get the nomination.
Barack Obama (D) - State Sen., Attorney & '00 Congressional Candidate Good shot at winning IF he's nominated. He's a muluttao state senator, a nice "center-left" Dem that appeals equally to blacks and whites. He WOULD have defeated Bobby Rush in the 2000 primary if Rush hadn't recruited another candidate to split the opposition vote. However, he is almost completely unknown outside his district and needs money. He'd probably lose the primary again.
Jan Schakowsky (D) - Congresswoman Unlikely. The screechy far-left feminazi would probably run a single issue campaign attacking Fitzgerald over a "woman's right to choose". Her fellow femanazi's would help her carry Cook County by a huge margin, but she can say bye bye to any support in the collar counties or downstate.