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Nate Silver: "Trumpian News Cycle" Makes 2018 Prediction Difficult; Expect "An October Surprise(tr)
RCP Video ^ | 10-21-2018 | Tim Hains

Posted on 10/21/2018 1:46:47 PM PDT by Sir Napsalot

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To: ClearCase_guy

Who is this Steponyourpopelpuss person.


41 posted on 10/21/2018 2:26:07 PM PDT by carmen2017
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To: Sir Napsalot

of course then you have the polls that are heavily slanted to the democrats..


42 posted on 10/21/2018 2:31:20 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: Sir Napsalot

What is the point of political polls?


43 posted on 10/21/2018 2:33:03 PM PDT by richardtavor
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To: Sir Napsalot

The current RCP prediction for the House is 205 D 199 R and 31 toss ups. Many of the toss ups races are R districts that haven’t seen a poll for over a month. My own chart has 206 D and 208 R with 21 toss ups. Of the 21 toss ups, 16 of them are likely to go R based on 2016 congressional results and their Trump results in 2016. These districts are going to vote the same way that they voted in 2016 unless their has been an abnormal event in that district. The current RCP numbers reflect the Blue Wave fairy tale.

The Democrats are very worried right now and for good reason. The lazy media are going to continue feed us the RCP gruel because they are too lazy to do anything else and they like the narrative. It is not correct.


44 posted on 10/21/2018 2:33:57 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: centurion316

Very good analysis....

so tell me how you believe in the full of crap dem propagandist, Charlie Cook.

Like you said, we carry 75 to 80% of the RCP tossups.


45 posted on 10/21/2018 2:39:41 PM PDT by Conserv
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To: Sir Napsalot

I feel the deep state will execute multiple mass shootings, probably surrounding Halloween.


46 posted on 10/21/2018 2:44:41 PM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51; Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

That explains the Democrat caravan. They want illegals to turn out for Beto.


47 posted on 10/21/2018 2:52:10 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Conserv

Everything I know about observing politics and elections, I learned from Charlie Cook. I stopped betting with him years ago because he is much better at it than you could imagine. I’ve know him for over 50 years, the accounts of him on this forum are wildly exaggerated.

I am feeling more optimistic every day.


48 posted on 10/21/2018 2:52:15 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: AC86UT89

Timing very suspicious. As soon as Democrats realized the blue wave is not happening, this caravan pops up. It’s a last ditch effort. They will try to create an incident at the border. Look for help from US citizens also.


49 posted on 10/21/2018 2:54:21 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: BeauBo

Hallelujah, everybody’s going to thank (whoever their deity is) for that.

You would think after Feinstein/Christine Blasey Ford debacle, Dems learn a thing or two. [Don’t count on it, though.]


50 posted on 10/21/2018 2:57:34 PM PDT by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = USSR; Journ0List + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey)
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To: centurion316

If you believe in putz Charlie Cook, you shouldn’t be optimistic at all.

You should be outright depressed.


51 posted on 10/21/2018 3:07:58 PM PDT by Conserv (U)
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To: Conserv

Take a look at his 2016 House results. Very much like 30 years worth results, pretty damn good. Did he get it wrong in 2016 on the Presidential race. Of course he did. No one in Washington had a clue what was going on in fly over country.


52 posted on 10/21/2018 3:12:35 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: TheBattman

No, but Trump is going to turn it around on the Democrats. As he puts the troops on the border, he’s going to pound the democrats for failing to keep the country safe and fix the immigration problem thereby causing Trump to fulfill his #1 responsibility as CINC; protecting the country from an invasion. Oh, there will be the usual hue and cry from all the usual suspects...probably get a few Hollywood libs at the border handing out bottled water...but it won’t matter. Trump will bury their nose in it.


53 posted on 10/21/2018 3:13:00 PM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man, a subject.")
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To: Sir Napsalot

Sorry Dems, but you blew your load with Kavanaugh!


54 posted on 10/21/2018 3:14:32 PM PDT by Artcore (Trump 2020!)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Natie, the October surprise is here already and it’s the Hispanic Shift which puts every Democrat in a district with more than 15% Hispanics in danger.


55 posted on 10/21/2018 3:30:30 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberal is lies.)
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To: AndyJackson
You are correct and maybe I should be more critical of him. I do remember that in 2016 he was questioning the reliability of the data he was being fed. So for him to proclaim that they could win up to 50-60 seats is outrageous and unprofessional; it now looks like 30-31 seats are actually competitive at this moment.

Since his rise to prominence in 2012, he was wrong about 2014 midterms, wrong about Brexit in 2015, and wrong about 2016 (and even wrote an article about it). If he were a professional handicapper (or even a broker or investment banker), he would have lost credibility at this point.

I still have 54 over/under for the GOP in the senate and a loss of 17 in the house as an over/under. I bet I come closer than this guy.

As far as data goes, you are correct. I am consultant by trade and if I gave out such bad advice to my clients, I would lose them as clients.

56 posted on 10/21/2018 3:41:51 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: centurion316

Thanks for the intel, Centurion. Like the result you’re finding.


57 posted on 10/21/2018 5:00:29 PM PDT by poconopundit
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To: chiller

Wallace is completely useless. How are these women and children traveling hundreds of miles?


58 posted on 10/21/2018 7:36:38 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: piytar
Won’t matter. As long as we get out and vote, it will be a red wave.

Yep - and with the well-organized caravan MOB heading our way, we ought to be fully pissed and motivated to get out...

59 posted on 10/22/2018 2:33:39 AM PDT by trebb (Those who don't donate anything tend to be empty gasbags...no-value-added types)
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