I cannot prove this but I believe there is an additional 3% to 5% of support for The Donald. First, the polls are using a “likely voter” model which excludes those who did not vote in previous elections. Mr Trump has energized a lot of previous apathetic voters who would be excluded by most polling companies as people that won’t vote. I think this effect is particularly strong in the mid-West and places like Pennsylvania. There are a lot of early middle-aged people that have seen their jobs disappear who might not have normally voted. Second I believe the article is right in postulating a sort of “Shy Tory” syndrome. There are a lot of people that support Mr Trump but don’t talk about it because they are afraid of the violence that the democrats visit upon those who offer dissent. Third, an unfocused issue in this campaign is the absolute revulsion many people have for the PC speech codes. Mr Trump’s casual vulgarity is, in many ways refreshing rather than shocking.
Like I said I can’t prove any of what I just wrote. I hope it is not just wishfull thinking.
Does anyone see friends/family who are typically Republican saying they will vote for Hillary? I hear a number of elected and formerly elected Republicans saying that, but not normal, everyday people.