Posted on 09/30/2016 12:32:18 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Pennsylvania is definitely in play for this year’s presidential election. That’s obvious from Donald Trump’s impromptu Geno’s cheesesteak run and the Pennsylvania visits from the Obamas and numerous celebrities for Hillary Clinton. The polls show it too: A once double-digit lead for Hillary Clinton now down to 2.4 percentage points, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
That Pennsylvania will likely be close this year is no surprise. Aside from 2008, Pennsylvania has routinely had one of the tightest races of any state in the last several elections. What’s surprising this year is how it’s in play. In this cray election year, many types of voters across Pennsylvania are breaking away from the party they’ve tended to favor in recent years. Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall who has followed Pennsylvania elections for decades, says these changes defy what we tend to think about Pennsylvania voters.
The differences particularly became clear in a CNN Poll from earlier this week, which showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by two percentage points among likely voters. The poll broke down candidate choice based on race, income level, educational attainment and gender....
(Excerpt) Read more at billypenn.com ...
Close the deal!
Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado for the win.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan for the statement.
Anything else to embarrass her.
Some of these anomalies seem to point more to issues with the poll itself than to anything changing in PA.
I’d throw in Maine as a possible Trump win as well.
Please, please throw in California!
Better yet, throw out California! (from the Union)
Philadelphia will need another year of 103% of all eligible democrat voters showing up...
Just heard the witch is leading by 7 in NY.
Just 7
Maine can divide its electoral votes. Trump is getting 1 of 4, for sure. Two congressional districts, plus two electors for statewide winner. Trump has CD2 by a fat margin.
That would be a slump ;-)
Wow
That kind of depressed turnout won’t be enough for Her.
I am very much expecting to see a Trump-ahead NJ poll come out soon.
Even if you double it, that still lags the 26-28% Obama won by in 2008 and 2012. Heck, even Kerry won NY by 18% over an incumbent president.
Interesting analysis. But not sure agree with the conclusion. Why wouldn’t the trends/forces that are in play around the country putting other normally blue states into play not also be relevant in PA?
For example granted every state is a little different from another but Ohio and PA mirror each other pretty closely the last few elections. PA is approxmately 2 to 3.5% more democrat than Ohio going back to 2000. If Trump is up average of +2% (and some consider that conservative) in Ohio that means Trump very well is too close to call or maybe a bit up in PA.
Also the Axiom Strategies battleground poll shows Trump up by 15% in a county won by Obama in 2012 by 5%. If that trend holds throughout the state that SHOULD (I emphasize should) overcome Philly proper and its’ fraud (if it’s small).
Yep, she’s running ads here. The main one is the Trump Hates Women meme featuring young girls checking out their looks in the mirror interspersed by Trump saying they are pigs and fat slobs.
Then it ends with “Is this the president we want for our daughters?”
I’m cankles and I approve this message.
How do FReepers explain this article -
(paraphrasing)
>>> As national Republican party get more conservative, the more liberal wealthier Pennsylvanians (income > 55k a year) switched from Republican to Democrats. <<<
??? Which conservative is the author talking about? What trend that national Republicans goes conservative? Bush? McCain? Romney?
WOW! Maybe all those recent terrorist attacks are sinking into to the low-information voters in New York.
If she is up only 7 in NY this race is over.
More than $55,000.00 a year is considered “wealthier”?
Huh?
.
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