In a few weeks the real “likely voter” will emerge and we’ll get some informative polls.
Early returns will help a lot.
I think we’ll see that the 2012 turnout model pollsters are using overstates Hillary support by 3%.
So it’s close.
2012 breakdown was the following:
M 47%
F 53%
D 38%
R 32%
I 29%
White 72%
Black 13%
Hispanic 10%
Asian 3%
It can drive you nuts to follow the daily swings in every poll. We high-five when Trump is up and we despair when Trump is down. It almost feels like being a Cubs fan! We all remember how we thought the polling in 2012 was way off (remember uskewedpolls.com?), only to be proven wrong. I really, REALLY want to believe that with Trump things are truly different and that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
1. Is there a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary to depress Democrat turnout? I believe yes.
2. Can Trump generate the enthusiasm to increase GOP turnout? I believe yes.
3. Are we going to see an increase of people who have not voted in years, perhaps never voted before at all, to vote for Trump? I believe yes.
4. Will Trump be the one GOP candidate that can FINALLY win more than the usual number of black voters? I believe yes.
Well, you have four reasons as to why pollsters cannot rely on 2012 data for this year. Anyone else is welcome to add to the list.
GO TRUMP!! Do a better job in the next debate please!!!