Pat Caddell: ‘Nobody Knows What We’re Polling. … The Race Stands Unresolved’

Breitbart ^ | September 29, 2016 | Dan Riehl

[2ndDivisionVet]

Pat Caddell talked to Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Alex Marlow on Thursday about the apparent disconnect in election polling, stating, “The secret is nobody knows what we’re polling.” Caddell continued:

There are different ways of doing it. They come out with different results … because the polling tends now to be very snap – who’s ahead, who’s behind. We’re not looking deep enough into the attitudinal structure of this race. And that’s where I have repaired myself, which is to really try to dig into that because that is what, in the end, what will be determinative.

“Some of these polls are good. Some are not good,” stated Caddell, adding:

We don’t know, for example – we have voter models based upon past performance – we don’t know whether that’s going to hold up. The Trump model indicates voters who have not been participating, but are registered, who are planning to come out and vote.

“On the Breitbart polling … we’re trying to look a little deeper at this to understand what’s at play. … The truth of the matter is the race still hangs unresolved yet,” asserted Caddell...

[Nifster]

Here’s a link to RCP which shows them

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[datricker]

Yeah but I think even McGovern stopped being McGovern guy when he retired and tried to start a bed and breakfast.

[Scooter100]

The further out from the election, the more likely the polls are complete crap. As we get closer, the pollsters will slowly gravitate to the accurate truth. None of them want a corporate image of being unable to predict elections....bad for the image, and too much future revenue at stake.

[MuttTheHoople]

The reason so many liberals fought bravely in WW2, was because their hero nation the USSR was attacked by National Socialist Germany.

[KevinB]

You are wrong. Most polls showed obozo winning. All sorts of folks were busy saying that dems were over sampled and no way would the dems turn out for him.

This.

[Nifster]

See the link at post 37

[GailA]

Neighbors had Obama sign up for him. It’s still in their garage. NO hilldabeast sign. This is a mixed neighborhood with a lot of retired Military.

Small rural community, most political signs are for local or State races. And they don’t have party on them.

I’ve seen a few Trump signs in a few yards, most are on HWY 51 in the Medians. Most just the typical yard sign not the big ones.

[HamiltonJay]

He’s being honest. 2012 models are IMHO a joke but that’s where most polling is at. What will 2016 models be? They don’t know, and at least he’s being honest enough to say it.

If you assume a 2012 model you get a very different outcome than if you assume 2016 will see democratic turnout way down and republican turnout up.. And you start to include disenfranchised voters who will show up for Trump.

2012 model, relatively tight race... Start to make assumptions like depressed D turnout and other things Trump blows it away.

[laplata]

Well put.

There might be more Trump Democrats than there were Reagan Democrats.

[Dave W]

Thanks for the link. My apologies. I guess it was the Gallup one I remembered and thought the others were similar. So it does appear the polls were correct in the last election, unfortunately.

[Dave W]

Yes. I remember that. When he started the B&B, he commented about the high taxes and regulations and how it was killing his business. I almost fainted. In the end, he never really changed, though. I don’t think he was ever able to grasp that concept other than how it affected him.