Replies

1 posted on 09/13/2016 6:39:00 PM PDT by LS

For the benefit if others and to save time: Can someone explain how the EV's are divided in Maine, since it is not a 'winner-take-all-state'?

2 posted on 09/13/2016 6:41:40 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (She calls me Mr. Deplorable.)

Trump takes Maine and NH and puts CT in play

5 posted on 09/13/2016 6:48:33 PM PDT by Mjreagan

Hillary better get the illegal vote from the Muslim Somali refugees. From what I read the illegal vote is critical to democrats

6 posted on 09/13/2016 6:48:37 PM PDT by Organic Panic (Hillary Clinton, the elderly woman's version of "I dindu nuffins.")

Just anecdotal, but... We just returned from a week-long vacation on the Maine coast. We stayed not far from the Bush compound in beautiful Kennebunkport. Saw quite a few Trump lawn signs and bumper stickers just about everywhere except leftist Portland.

7 posted on 09/13/2016 6:51:39 PM PDT by nutmeg (I am a proud Deplorable)

Look for buses driving up the Maine Turnpike on election day.

12 posted on 09/13/2016 7:25:49 PM PDT by cmj328 (We live here.)

Trump will win Maine - Stephen King’s Cthulhu insult notwithstanding.

18 posted on 09/13/2016 10:26:52 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))

Obama won Maine by 15%, so that is a huge swing. If all states swing by 12% (and growing), this will be a realignment election.

24 posted on 09/14/2016 6:37:23 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)

I'm going to need to see another week of polling.

Sneak Peek

Based on the new polls since Saturday, things have not yet changed overall in my model. Some of these polls are reinforcing prior polls from last week that resulted in Trump improving his chances by 8%.

As of now, my model with these polls shows Trump gaining 3 electoral votes but dropping 3% in probability to 26% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.

That said, there is movement. Last week, I showed Clinton with securing 279 electoral votes, with 166 of those as "Safe." With these new polls, Clinton drops below 270, with 269 electoral votes (162 safe). With probabilities factored in, she's expected to win 304 electoral votes right now.

The big movements right now are:

Maine (4 EV) moved from Safe D to Toss-Up.
Nevada (6 EV) moved from Leans D to Toss-Up.
Virginia (13 EV) moved from Leans D to Strong D.
Georgia (16 EV) moved from Toss-Up to Leans R.
Iowa (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Leans R due to model tweaks.
Kansas (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Safe R.
Utah (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Safe R.

The next full report will probably come out on Saturday.

-PJ

26 posted on 09/14/2016 9:20:37 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)

Reuters also has it tied 39-39 in a 4 way with Trump up 9 with Independents.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25486

30 posted on 09/14/2016 9:42:48 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)

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