[Political Junkie Too]

I'm going to need to see another week of polling.

Sneak Peek

Based on the new polls since Saturday, things have not yet changed overall in my model. Some of these polls are reinforcing prior polls from last week that resulted in Trump improving his chances by 8%.

As of now, my model with these polls shows Trump gaining 3 electoral votes but dropping 3% in probability to 26% chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.

That said, there is movement. Last week, I showed Clinton with securing 279 electoral votes, with 166 of those as "Safe." With these new polls, Clinton drops below 270, with 269 electoral votes (162 safe). With probabilities factored in, she's expected to win 304 electoral votes right now.

The big movements right now are:

• Maine (4 EV) moved from Safe D to Toss-Up.
• Nevada (6 EV) moved from Leans D to Toss-Up.
• Virginia (13 EV) moved from Leans D to Strong D.
• Georgia (16 EV) moved from Toss-Up to Leans R.
• Iowa (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Leans R due to model tweaks.
• Kansas (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Safe R.
• Utah (6 EV) moved from Strong R to Safe R.

The next full report will probably come out on Saturday.

-PJ

[LS]

yeah, they are changing huge: today Bloomberg has Trump +5 in OH, report on Twitter has him +2 in CO, see my post on Rush Limbaugh thread.

Two national polls have him up over 4 now.