Replies

OK let me rephrase the questions, first adding some info:

Info:

Each state’s system for allocating delegates has been brought out in excruciating detail as we have moved through this primary season, and we have seen how many delegates thus far are in each candidate’s tally column, how many are needed, what percentage of remaining are needed, etc.

We have been told over and over again that 1237 is the number required to clinch the Republican nomination.

My questions:

1) When is the last time a Republican candidate had enough delegates (or —more—) to clinch the nomination, and —then afterward— enough delegates went and broke the “bound at the first ballot” rule, so as to deny that candidate the nomination and give it to the second place candidate?

2) When is the last time a Republican candidate had enough delegates (or —more—) to clinch the nomination, and then the convention went and changed the rules on how many were needed, and pulled the rug out from the leading candidate?

3) When is the last time a Republican candidate was referred to as “presumptive nominee”, when they had sufficient (or more) number of delegates to secure the nomination?

Give me historical events for 1), 2), and 3) above.

1)Republican Party[edit]

The rules are subject to change every election cycle and is determined by the Republican National Convention prior to the convention date. An example of this is Rule 40b of the RNC which was in effect in 2012, but has not been adopted for the 2016 convention in Cleveland.[9] Under this rule, a candidate must have the support of a majority of the delegates of at least eight states in order to get the nomination. Rule 40e then states that if no candidate has received the majority of votes, “the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes.”[10]

Conventions close to being contested

The 1968 Republican National Convention featured former Vice President Richard Nixon as the clear delegate leader, but with New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller among others trying to prevent him gaining a majority. During the early days of the convention Rockefeller supporters claimed there was “erosion” among Nixon delegates. If there was, it was minor, and Nixon went on to win a first-ballot nomination.

In 1976, the Republican primaries gave President Gerald Ford a slight lead in both popular vote and delegates before the Republican National Convention, but he did not have enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan. That is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having been decided in the primaries.[13]

In 1980, Senator Ted Kennedy, challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination, fell short in the primaries, but he was still urging delegates to switch over to him when he arrived at the Democratic convention in August. However, Carter won handily on the first ballot, and Kennedy dropped out of the running a few hours later.

There was also speculation that the 2008 Republican primaries would result in a brokered convention, due to the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of “winner take all” states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them.[18][19] At one point it was thought likely that five early contests would be won by five different candidates (Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire, Romney in Nevada, Thompson in South Carolina, Giuliani in Florida). However, McCain won South Carolina and Florida in addition to New Hampshire and would remain dominant for the rest of the primary season. Thus a contested convention did not come close to happening.
In the 2016 Republican primaries, there was considerable speculation, with presidential candidate Donald Trump’s opponents in his own party, that a contested convention might take place.[20][21][22][23] On March 16, 2016, Former Speaker of the House, John Boehner, said that in the case of a brokered convention he would support the current Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, for the nomination, despite the fact that Ryan is not a presidential candidate. Boehner’s remarks sparked controversy, by implying that the Republican Party is not necessarily obliged to select a candidate participating in the primary election process.[24] Donald Trump’s significant victory in the Indiana primary on May 3, 2016, which saw the remaining candidates Cruz & Kasich suspend their campaigns shortly thereafter, has diminished the prospect of a brokered convention in 2016.

Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process.

First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runners as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders.[25] Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them.[26]

Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention and to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency.

Especially because of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day, it is considered possible if not probable that any “brokering” that may be required for a future presidential convention will take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the frontrunner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee. That was the case prior to the 1980 Republican National Convention. California Governor Ronald Reagan won the presidential nomination and chose George H. W. Bush as his vice presidential nominee despite former President Gerald Ford being the frontrunner for the slot.

I do not know the answers to 1, 2 or 3. As I said before, it is an interesting side question and should you choose to research it I would like to know what you find out.

Understand, I am not saying that anything is going to occur that would keep Trump from getting the nomination. I have no proof of any such thing happening so I would not say it. But, there has been some misunderstanding by many here about the convention and how it works, specifically regarding the rules committee, the conscience clause and the requirement of the delegates to vote per the state’s laws.

I’ve done quite a bit of reading on it so that I have some understanding of what is going on and when I see people have questions about it I try to fill in the blanks as best I can based on what I have read.

What I have read that has a lot of good reference to back it up:
1. State laws do not apply to RNC convention delegate votes, per SCOTUS ruling in the early 1970’s. The RNC is a private entity and the gov’t cannot coerce voting within a private entity. By this RNC delegates are not bound by state law to vote for anyone in particular. So yes, while we’ve been told ad nauseam about how delegate votes will be bound, split or appropriated, it seems it is unconstitutional for the state to have such laws.

2. The conscience clause is nothing new. It has been in place for over 100 years and with the exception of 1976, when the rules committee voted to require block voting, block voting has not been required.

3. Trump has (assuming none of the above “removes” delegates from his total) won the number of delegates plus state wins required per the convention rules from last year. Since the convention rules are made the week before the convention for that specific convention they won’t necessarily be the same this year as they were in 2012.

Again, I’m not saying that anything is going to happen to change the rules so significantly that Trump would not ultimately win the nomination. I’m just trying to explain the actual process as best I understand them from what I have read.