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Countdown to Cleveland: A guide to the remaining state contests.
The Weekly Standard ^ | The April 18, 2016 Issue | John McCormack

Posted on 04/10/2016 7:38:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The rap on Ted Cruz has been that his strength is limited to (1) caucus states and (2) states with large proportions of evangelical Christians. But Cruz undid that analysis with his double-digit victory over Donald Trump in Wisconsin last week.

Cruz beat Trump 48 percent to 35 percent in a primary election (so much for the caucus argument). And he did so by besting the New York billionaire among virtually all groups, whether defined by income, age, or educational attainment. Trump did manage to win, by 9 points, that quarter of the Wisconsin GOP primary voters who described themselves as moderate or liberal; but Cruz beat Trump by 21 points with the remaining three-quarters who described themselves as somewhat or very conservative.

With a broad-based win in Wisconsin, Cruz demonstrated he has a realistic path to winning the GOP nomination at an open convention. If Cruz can win a handful of key Midwestern and Western states—Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, and California—he can keep Trump from getting the majority of delegates that are needed to win the nomination....

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: cruz; delegates; gopconvention; gopprimaries; tedcruz; trump
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Two page article.
1 posted on 04/10/2016 7:38:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump has been polling consistenly at 35% in Wisconsin since December. I think he overperformed and he won late voters who are switching from Ted Cromney.


2 posted on 04/10/2016 7:40:19 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal (Mofopolitics: Trump probably gets 1,237 even w/out OH)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Burn it down.


3 posted on 04/10/2016 7:40:38 PM PDT by heights
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Does anywhere in either page explain what one state Cruz can win that Romney did not?


4 posted on 04/10/2016 7:41:17 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

And which states does Trump have a lock on that Romney lost? The truth is that BOTH Trump and Cruz face an uphill battle in a general election. The only hope for either of them is Hillary’s weakness as a candidate.


5 posted on 04/10/2016 7:46:17 PM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Countdown, you say?

Kind of like a ticking time bomb?

6 posted on 04/10/2016 7:49:24 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If thus-and-so can happen, we can keep the guy guaranteed to draw votes from the Dims in the GE from clinching the nomination. #NeverTrumps are suicidal.


7 posted on 04/10/2016 7:59:30 PM PDT by orangeTank
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz really beat trump in that group of democrats who were ordered to vote for him to stop trump!


8 posted on 04/10/2016 8:15:31 PM PDT by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)
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To: Jim from C-Town

Can you explain the clear data at 270towin.com that shows cruzs position by states to be much stronger than trumps?


9 posted on 04/10/2016 8:53:53 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Trump is anti-conservative / Cruz 2016)
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To: irishjuggler

I don’t agree.

The problem is the GOPe is against Trump. However he has a LOT of supporters. Big time.

Trump however, threatens all of the “sell out America to China” people who have been selling off America’s industrial strength for the entire last generation.

So they all oppose him. Even though he is the strongest GOP candidate in recent history.


10 posted on 04/10/2016 9:24:35 PM PDT by cba123 (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
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To: Jim from C-Town

I understand your question and i think in a vacuum the answer is none but turn that question around and ask it of Hillary. Whomever the candidate is on the right shes simply not as popular as Obama. Also while we may not like Obama we still have to recognize others do like him. Shes just not anywhere near as well liked.
Bernie has been pretty soft on her for the most part. Either Trump or Cruz will be much harder on her.


11 posted on 04/10/2016 10:30:12 PM PDT by wiggen (#JeSuisCharlie)
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To: wiggen

I agree. I actually voted Cruz in Ohio and am not unhappy that I did. I would certainly vote for him or Trump in the General. That being said, I honestly believe that Trump will energize the white vote. Both male and female in fly over country. He captures Ohio, Florida, Virginia and puts Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and possibly even a serious bid for a couple East Coast states.

Regardless, the giant push for Latino votes is deceptive. If Romney got 70% of the Latino vote in 2012, HE STILL LOSES! If he had gotten only 3% more of the white vote, HE WINS and he does so easily. We are still a vastly WHITE country. When you add in the ‘White Latino’ vote, Most Latinos are white European ancestry, much like white Americans, it is even a more white country.

Trump has the uncanny ability to draw disaffected working white voters as well as white voters who haven’t voted in years. Look at the raw number of NEW Republican voters in these states that have voted. It is unbelievable.

He’d also appeals to black Americans who have been short shifted by the Democrats in favor of ILLEGALS. They darn well know that the Democrats are all too comfortable with their vote and take them for granted. A simple shift of 10% of the black vote to the Republicans and the Democrats can not mathematically win the Presidency.

I am certainly not worried about Trump being a disaster as president, he will certainly not be perfect, but after the last four presidents, particularly Obama, marginally competent will make him look like the greatest thing since sliced bread.


12 posted on 04/10/2016 10:52:39 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: ObamahatesPACoal

>Trump has been polling consistenly at 35% in Wisconsin since December. I think he overperformed and he won late voters who are switching from Ted Cromney.

A lot of Hillery voters crossed over to vote for Ted as well.


13 posted on 04/10/2016 10:56:11 PM PDT by RedWulf
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To: cba123
Even though he is the strongest GOP candidate in recent history.

By what metric is Trump the strongest GOP candidate in recent history? I'm not a particular fan of GWB, but he was a pretty formidable candidate in 2004 against Kerry. Is Trump stronger than that? How so?

I totally get that some Trump supporters absolutely adore the guy in a way that is very rare on our side (though less rare for Democratic candidates such as Obama '08). So, yes, Trump has some very fervent supporters, and that's great, but I've seen little evidence that such folks are a majority or even close to a majority of the total electorate. And I totally get that Trump appeals to some Democrat and independent voters. Just the other day, my non-political Filipino-immigrant barber was talking about how much he likes Trump. Another customer questioned him about why, and his response was that Trump is a great businessman and his hotel in Vegas is impressive.

So, I absolutely agree that Trump has the potential peel off some non-GOP votes. And, yet, I also suspect that there are many, many GOP voters who just don't like or respect Trump. He picks up some from the other side, but he loses some from our side. I'm skeptical that he's a net gainer. And the stuff that people don't like about him (the pettiness, the unpresidential temperament, that lack of expertise on the issues) are, unfortunately, not thing that he's realistically going to be able to change. The dude is 69. He is what he is. He hasn't grown into the position over the last year. He's still the same whiny rich guy, tweeting the same crazy stuff.
14 posted on 04/10/2016 11:22:43 PM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: irishjuggler

I disagree.

Trump is light-years ahead of everyone else, and he is very very strong.

The GOP is risking everything at the moment, by not climbing on with him.

Big time.


15 posted on 04/10/2016 11:25:58 PM PDT by cba123 (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
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To: cba123
Trump is light-years ahead of everyone else, and he is very very strong.

What specifically does that mean? How is he light years ahead? Stronger in what way?
16 posted on 04/10/2016 11:28:56 PM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: irishjuggler

Yeah and bush almost lost. Came down to Ohio like 2000 was Florida. Face it, we have not done really well since 1988.


17 posted on 04/11/2016 12:53:56 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: irishjuggler

The meaning is that the Donald is adept at piloting faster than light vehicles, which are yuge don’t you know, and he has been trained as a Jedi, which explains the strength.

Sheesh, I never thought to see such lickspittle, toady, worship of a political candidate from conservatives.


18 posted on 04/11/2016 3:49:44 AM PDT by LurkLongley (Ad Majoram Dei Gloriam-For the Greater Glory of God)
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To: Jim from C-Town

“I agree. I actually voted Cruz in Ohio and am not unhappy that I did. I would certainly vote for him or Trump in the General. “

What kind of level headed thinking is that???? Don’t you know we are supposed to be in full circular firing squad mode???? ; )


19 posted on 04/11/2016 6:14:38 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
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To: Jim from C-Town

“I agree. I actually voted Cruz in Ohio and am not unhappy that I did. I would certainly vote for him or Trump in the General. “

What kind of level headed thinking is that???? Don’t you know we are supposed to be in full circular firing squad mode???? ; )


20 posted on 04/11/2016 6:14:39 AM PDT by jdsteel (Give me freedom, not more government.)
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