Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
Just making friends all over aren’t you.
Cruz should put his country first / put his pride aside & support Trump because the electorate will never vote in enough numbers for Cruz for President.
Ergo, you have ONLY changed your mind, because you support Cruz, who is NOT a NBC!
The last time we nominated a conservative, they said the electorate would never vote for him, either. He ended up winning in two landslides. The last time we nominated a liberal Republican like Trump (four years ago), we got trounced by a weak president. No more liberal Republican nominees!
Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka, wow! What a great set of people who happen to be sons and daughters of Donald Trump. They are a testament to him.
Ping to #15 and #54 where an example and report are given of how Romney takes down Trump even if Trump wins 1237+.
Your thoughts are welcome.
Lessee now, Trump's immigration policy is eminently conservative.
Same for Trump's tax policy.
Same for Trump's education policy and opposition to Common Core.
Ditto healthcare, where Trump supports repealing 0bamacare and replacing it with something free market based.
And, unlike Cruz, Trump doesn't support TPA, and doesn't think such sweeping power should be given to any President, let alone Barack 0bama.
The fact is, one of the main reasons that Donald Trump jumped out in front of Ted Cruz for this election cycle was by reason of Trump's eschewing political correctness and showing leadership in bringing such conservative issues to the forefront.
Ted Cruz has had several opportunities to show leadership, but each and every time, he instead shows that he is nothing but an unprincipled, naked opportunist.
For God's sake, Ted Cruz, parroting his GOPe benefactors, disingenuously tried to play the race card against Donald Trump, knowing that the Establishment smear was patently false. Nothing could ever be more lowdown and sleazy than that...
Cruz has defied expectations. When this race began, he was barely a blip on the radar in a crowded field of 17. He just keeps working. The race is not over. But now it’s down to Cruz and Trump. Could go either way.
He should, but he is either deluded into thinking he can win both the nomination and the general election, or he knows he is working for the GOPe to stop Trump and elect HIllary. Either way, he is working to elect Hillary. Not only that, but by this betrayal of the country, he will never be President, and he will end up being a one-term Senator.
Cruz is a FRAUD and a LIAR who has less experience than Obama did at this point in his primary race. But Cruz doesn't have the right skin color nor the right party affiliation to win. He's GOPE all the way and NOT as "conservative" as you imagine. Neither can he win the general election. Nor does he know or understand finances, business, anything military, doesn't know any foreign heads of states, foreign laws, social matters, and has lousy judgement in people.
There are far more who know that, than you can imagine.
Trump’s immigration policy is populist, it is neither liberal nor conservative. Trump’s tax policy is slightly conservative, but also contains liberal planks like his opposition to corporate inversions. His healthcare policy is a bit vague, currently it trends conservative, but he has expressed admiration for centrally-planned ideas in the past, thus I do not trust him on that issue. His trade policy is unabashedly progressive and protectionist. He remains another moderate-to-liberal Republican in his past history and stated positions, and I do not trust him to govern as anything but, therefore he will not get my vote. I’ve been asked to vote for the lesser of two evils too many times.
Trump isn’t a “liberal”, you, little n00b, are a political naif, and obviously care nothing whatsoever about this nation, your fellow Americans, FREEPERS, nor yourself and your family members.
There are so many untruths in your last post that I’m not even sure where to begin. But I maintain that Little Donald is NOT a conservative, and thus shall not get my vote. Romney was the last non-conservative Republican I’ll ever vote for. Never again. Not McCain. Not Romney. Not Little Donald. Hillary, Bernie, or Trump... with any of them we can just expect more authoritarian governance. I’m not going with any of them.
Ah, so I don’t support Little Donald, therefore I ‘care nothing about this nation’. I’ll tell you what I care about... I care about Liberty. That’s why I don’t vote for moderates. That’s why I won’t vote for Little Donald.
Haw haw, that's a laugh!
Let's see now: that "liberal Republican" loser from 2012, Mitt Romney (and the one from 2008, John McCain), and Jeb Bush, with crooked Neil Bush on his finance team, and Lindsay Graham.
Who are those "liberal Republicans" supporting at this very moment?
Ted Cruz, of course!
Why? Because they know Ted Cruz will 1) Lose to Hillary, preserving the status quo and the corrupt system, or 2) If Ted Cruz somehow steals the nomination and somehow wins the general election, he'll dutifully preserve the DC status quo and the corrupt system, because he will be loyal to the GOPe benefactors who propped up his failed campaign.
Ted Cruz has embraced the GOPe in the most transparent way. Cruz has shown that the only thing that's important to him is his own personal advancement. Touting conservative principles is merely "boob bait for bubbas".
A vote for Ted Cruz is a vote for maintaining the DC cartel, because nothing will change without a Revolutionary tsunami...
That fat bast@rd Erickson was wrong back in Jan and he is still wrong.
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