I was laying out probable scenarios for my wife. This is pure tea-leaf reading and nothing about where I stand on any candidate.
IMHO: In order of probability (1 is best chance):
1) Trump has enough delegates and is the candidate
2) Trump has a LARGE plurality of delegates and is declared the candidate (saber rattling notwithstanding)
3) Brokered convention, Trump makes a passionate speech but stays put, Cruz wins 2nd vote (this article’s prognostication)
4) Brokered convention, Trump takes his delegates and walks out, GOP Schism — candidate is irrelevant (but probably Cruz)
5) Same as 3 but Trump wins
6) Same as 3 but Kasic wins
There are a LOT of different variations on these and some may not agree (in fact I would be amazed if some agree) but that is the way I read the tea leaves this moment.
How is your number 2 possible? “Declared the candidate?” By whom? Through what mechanism?