Posted on 04/07/2016 3:09:50 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Utah Sen. Mike Lee said he believes Ted Cruz would be the GOP presidential nominee if the convention is contested.
"On successive ballots, I think victory is more likely to go to Ted Cruz," Lee, who is a backer of the Texas senator, said during a radio interview Wednesday. "We have to remember that most Republicans around the country have voted for someone other than Donald Trump."
A convention would become contested if no candidate gets 1,237 delegates beforehand. On the first ballot, delegates are typically bound to the candidates their state picked in the primaries or caucuses. On subsequent ballots, however, many are released and can shift to another candidate.
"I would not be a bit surprised if Ted Cruz won in that circumstance, in fact, I'd be surprised if he didn't. On second ballots, on successive ballots, you're going to see more and more delegates moving to Ted Cruz," Lee said.
Donald Trump leads the pack with 743 delegates, followed by Cruz, who has 517, according to Bloomberg's count. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who left the race last month after a loss in his home state, has 171 delegates, followed by John Kasich, who has 143.
That's extremely unlikely. That would mean Trump holds onto all of his pledged delegates after most become unbound and no longer have to vote for him, AND he gets unbound Cruz/Rubio/Kasich delegates to vote for him. Even if he cuts a deal with Rubio or Kasich as his V.P., that isn't necessarily going to be what all the unbound delegates want. Keep in mind only about 20% of the delegates are selected by the candidates themselves to come to the convention. Most are longtime political activists not affiliated with any campaign.
What I'm not sure of is if either Rubio or Kasich can "release" their delegates on the FIRST ballot. The state requires them to vote for the guy who won the state, but that rule may not apply if they voluntarily release them. If so, that's Trump's best chance, cut a deal for V.P. with one of them. Again, their delegates might not be loyal to Rubio or Kasich either, but Trump can do a head count and see if enough of them will come to his side in the first ballot if he cuts that deal.
What else is a Cruz backer going to say? This thing is lost? If they say anything other than Cruz can win at a contested convention the no one shows up to vote for Cruz the rest of the Primary.
You were right the first time.
I can guarantee you that if Cruz some how some way manages to pull this stunt off, that 30% of Republicans will stay home on election day (including me) and will hand Hillary the nomination in a landslide.
I wanted to say: "We have to remember that most Republicans around the country have voted for someone other than Ted Cruz," but I decided to see how many beat me to it first.
Five people beat me to posting it, and I imagine a lot of others thought the same thing. I'm amazed that a professional could say something so stupid and not recognize the obvious and logical response.
And Joseph Smith is a Prophet of God, right Mike?
Ok 2DV you got me, i usually choose “everything” when i look at the posts.
sorry
I heard Newt discussing your exact question a couple of days ago. He was not sure which way it would go since the wording in the rules is ambiguous. He said it may depend on the rules for this current convention which haven’t been approved yet.
So you have no idea what is going on pre-convention?
“We have to remember that most Republicans around the country have voted for someone other than Donald Trump.”
‘Can someone explain that logic to me” Even FEWER have voted for Cruz.’
It’s the dumbest argument in the history of politics. Candidate A received less than fifty percent support, so we have to take the nomination away from him and give it to Candidate B, who got significantly LESS support.
The stupidity is beyond quantifiable.
I think Rubio will send his delegates to Cruz and be the VP.
Yeah Trump with his 70% negative is a shoo in for the general election. ;)
Don’t forget the buyers remorse factor 2DV.
The Owsley Trump-aid is wearing off and Duh Donald is showing his no class unhinged fanny more and more.
A lot of his delegates CAN”T WAIT for the second ballot in Cleveland so they can vote for the REAL conservative.
LOL, no, you had it right the first time.
You’re pushing the same kind of totalitarian attitude that people associate with Trump, trying to shut down free speech and any criticism of your dear leader.
There’s a lot of that, too.
As a Cruz supporter I would have to admit that most Republicans around the country have voted for someone other than Ted Cruz ... as well. Multiple ballots would seem to work in Trump's favor as he has lots of money available to bribe people.
‘I’m amazed that a professional could say something so stupid and not recognize the obvious and logical response.’
It was originally said by Karl Rove. He doesn’t come across as particularly sharp.
Maybe.
If a whole slew of “alternative” candidates with ZERO chance of ever taking a majority of delegates is not nominated.
Two names, according to the rules as now written, have an opportunity to be nominated.
The Donald, and Ted Cruz.
Say The Donald does not have enough committed delegates to win outright on the first ballot. But, neither does Ted.
Hypothetically, the delegates are released from their obligation to a given after the first ballot. The arithmetic changes immediately.
There should STILL be only the two candidates in the race, The Donald and Ted Cruz. No provision was made for other nominations to be made by the chair or from the floor. I am aware Robert’s Rules of Order allow these actions, but apparently, the Republican National Convention is defiantly resisting the strict application of these rules, as they have stubbornly set out to write their own.
There is no certainty that even if only the two remain in the race, that Ted Cruz is the sure winner and The Donald will go down in defeat, snatched from the very jaws of victory.
NCAA March Madness ultimate winners are picked only by winning each of the brackets as the match-ups, even though those in the basic selection based on specific criteria may have been chosen by a panel that may or may not have shown a bias.
By convention, we start seeing long list of Lyin’ Cruz mistresses babies. And he will be busy in DNA testing lab.
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