what are the chances Bernie or someone close to him has an “accident”
If this is a prediction thread, here’s my two cents worth:
Sanders over Clinton by 15 points.
Pubbies:
Trump 40%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 13%
Christie 12%
Kasich 10%
Jeb 3%
A quick run at the math and it appears that 8% are undecided on the Republican side. The race for slots 2 to 4 seems pretty wide open. Will come down to the GOTV effort.
And Bernie’s gaining on Hillary in Iowa as the review of the caucus results goes forward.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Trump
|
Rubio
|
Kasich
|
Cruz
|
Bush
|
Christie
|
Fiorina
|
Carson
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/2 - 2/8 | -- | -- | 30.7 | 14.8 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | Trump +15.9 |
| UMass/7News (Tracking)UMass Lowell | 2/5 - 2/7 | 464 LV | 5.1 | 34 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Trump +21 |
| GravisGravis | 2/7 - 2/7 | 705 LV | 3.7 | 28 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | Trump +11 |
| CNN/WMURCNN/WMUR | 2/4 - 2/8 | 362 LV | 5.2 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | Trump +14 |
| ARG (Tracking)ARG | 2/6 - 2/7 | 427 LV | 5.0 | 30 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Trump +14 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 2/4 - 2/6 | 508 LV | 4.4 | 30 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 4 | Trump +16 |
| Boston Herald/FPUBoston Herald | 2/2 - 2/6 | 433 LV | 4.7 | 31 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Trump +15 |
Bernie for “president”— if you liked militant black muslim, you’re going to love communist jew! ©
Given that New Hampshire is a northeastern, liberal, irreligious state, Donald Trump—a northeastern, liberal, irreligious candidate—OUGHT to do well there. If he gets 40+% there, it would be a big win for him. If he gets in the 35-39% range, he would meet expectations. 30-34%, a disappointment. And under 30%, it would be a loss, even if he finishes first.