Foolish writer.
Republicans are of the same count.
The difference isn’t quantity, it is the same people who are going to show up but this time fully reject the establishment uniparty.
Here are some numbers:
Total Iowa Registered Republicans as of 1/14/16 = 1,046,955
- per Iowa Secretary of State website
(The 2012 total Republican caucus vote was 121,255).
These are the possible turnout results for 2016:
If 120,000 turn out, that = 11.4% turnout
If 140,000 turn out, that = 13.3%
If 160,000 turn out, that = 15.2%
If 180,000 turn out, that = 17.1%
If 200,000 turn out, that = 19.1%
It is entirely possible that 160,000 will turn out this year, just a one-third increase over 2012, and still just 15.2% of total registered Republicans.
Add to that the number of party-switchers who will also caucus Monday evening and the results could well be YUGE!