When doing your Trump primary math, look beyond N.H.

The Boston Globe ^ | December 18, 2015 | Michael A. Cohen

[2ndDivisionVet]

Globe political reporter James Pindell made a smart, under-appreciated point in his Ground Game newsletter Thursday (subscribe to it here: bostonglobe.com/groundgame): When it comes to the establishment lane, most candidates are looking to New Hampshire for clues. Sure, if someone like Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Ohio’s Governor John Kasich, or Rubio wins the Granite State, then Republicans will likely have an establishment option in March.

But here’s the current trajectory of the race: US Senator Ted Cruz has the momentum to win Iowa, and Donald Trump is on a similar path to win New Hampshire. After winning Iowa, Cruz could easily get the 17 or 18 percent he needs to get second place in New Hampshire. That leaves the establishment candidate getting, at best, third place.

Then it is off to South Carolina and Nevada, where Trump holds double-digit leads, and then a week later to Super Tuesday. Those contests mostly take place in the Deep South, where an establishment candidate will probably not do well....

[tsowellfan]

I have family members who are long time liberals, Obama supporters campaigned for him in ‘08 and ‘12. They’re leaning Trump.

I've seen the same thing. They are likely not the militant hardcore leftist MSNBC watching activist liberals - in fact many of them dislike Hillary and support Sanders. <<-- they normally tend to vote democrat in the end no matter who the nominee is.

The ones I see leaning Trump are probably CNN liberals that work for a living.

[ripnbang]

Yeah, they got caught up in the historical significance of the ‘08 election and briefly considered Romney in ‘12 before doubling down on Obama.

[Jim from C-Town]

My comment is that if JEB or Rubio where polling at Trump numbers and with his lead,the race would be declared over and everyone else would be forced out by the Establishment.

[House Atreides]

“...It’s the math! Trump and Cruz combined are close to, and sometimes over, the 50% threshold. I understand many states are proportional rather than winner-take-all, but the math still works.

Anyone here want to bet me there will be a brokered convention? “No” is my choice....”
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Nah...that would be a sucker’s bet. If Trump and Cruz keep up what they’re doing, their RINO opponents will have just a tiny proportion of the delegates earned by April and it will be effectively over with either Trump or Cruz going on to get the nomination. I’m a Cruz guy but it will most likely be Trump carrying the victory.

In any case, the GOP establishment will be sidelined if, between them, Trump & Cruz get most of the delegates.

[House Atreides]

My comment is that if JEB or Rubio were polling at Trump numbers and with his lead, the race would be declared over and everyone else would be forced out by the Establishment.
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LOL ... I think you’re right. And all the media talking heads would be saying it’s time for everyone else to drop out so the leader can save resources for the general election.