Idle speculation anyone? Last time I checked not even a single primary vote has been cast. Iowa Caucus is not for another 5 months. It’s almost certain that the polls in January will be different from what they are today. Just think back on what the polls were just 4 months ago. Scott Walker was leading in every national poll and leading by some distance in Iowa.
As for Ben Carson, it’s almost certain that he will bring very few black votes either as presidential or vice presidential candidate. Blacks will vote over 90%’for the Democrats as usual.
Equally, it’s almost certain that a higher percentage of Latinos will vote for the Republican candidate than the percentage of blacks voting for the GOP candidate.
Great, an idle speculation free-for-all! Regarding Ben Carson, his VP candidacy helps inoculate (sorry, bad pun) the Republicans against any lingering white guilt, not for the purpose of bringing in any black vote (as you are statistically right, a Trump/Carson ticket would never accomplish that).
Carson’s appeal is not only with blacks, but it is a solid 10% and climbing. These are the voters who don’t want to vote for the Donald, but really respect Carson and will vote the Trump/Carson ticket. He will bring in more overall votes tham Cruz.