The critical question is not who is the most conservative. We can wind ourselves into pretzels arguing who is more conservative on what issue.
Also, who is more likely to win is just that...an opinion.
OTOH polls reflect whom the voters actually favor. That is why I am studying the polls. It is true polls are not the same as elections. However polls have generally have been a good indicator in history of how the election will turn out.
Who told you that?
Actually, that is one of the most fundamental reasons that freerepublic exists.