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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Isn’t it fairly well established that if an incumbent isn’t polling near 50%, they are in trouble because undecideds normally break 2:1 for the challenger. (If you’re undecided about a political figure you’ve known about for most/all of your voting life, you’re more likely to remain undecided about him...)

I don’t see how this poll is good for Mitchy. Margin of error poll that shows him significant less than closing the deal.

The internals must say something different because the Dems have dumped this race. Still. Looking at this poll doesn’t say what the article suggests (the TEA party is coming home to Mitchy). No. This poll, so far as I can tell, shows McConnell in trouble.


40 posted on 10/22/2014 4:24:30 AM PDT by ziravan (Choose Sides.)
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To: ziravan

Your Post #40: My sentiments EXACTLY. One small correction: Undecideds usually break for the challenger 85%.


56 posted on 10/22/2014 6:35:39 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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