Obama’s re-election and other perilous predictions for 2012 (Huckabee will be Milt's VP pick?)

The Globe and Mail ^ | January 8, 2012 | Andrew Steele

[2ndDivisionVet]

Predictions in politics and government are a fool’s game. The systems involved are chaotic and complex. The players change motive or exit the game unexpectedly. Choices are made for reasons that are often hidden, illogical or against one’s own self interest.

Despite this, last year I went out on a limb with 10 perilous predictions for 2011.

Surprisingly, eight of the ten guesses are generally correct, albeit some achieving the predicted result in different ways than envisaged. For instance, Stephen Harper did get his majority, but at the expense of the Liberals, rather than through NDP losses.

Gas prices failed to rise. China is certainly more wobbly than a year ago, but Beijing is managing to contain the evidence of that better than expected. And the biggest story of the year – the collapse of multiple Middle Eastern dictatorships – wasn’t on my radar at all.

It is incredibly unlikely that my guesses will be as reliable for 2012, but here goes anyway. Some of these are comfortable picks (Romney, Redford, polarization) while others are long-shots (Huckabee, Iran) or tough calls (Obama, Europe.)

1. Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee

The post-caucus coverage from Iowa seems to say Mitt Romney had a bad day, when the opposite is true.

The Iowa caucus is only worth a total of 25 delegates for the Republican nomination, and winning it is essentially meaningless in predicting the nominee. What it does is serve to winnow the field of its pretenders. With a fifth-place finish, Rick Perry is seriously damaged, and throwing everything into South Carolina. A fourth-place finish robbed Newt Gingrich of his momentum and leaves him in the race essentially as an anti-Romney spoiler. Ron Paul is not viable....

[Sola Veritas]

I would hope that Mike Huckabee, as a former Southern Baptist minister, would not join forces with a liberal Mormon. IF he does, Huckabee loses all credibility and his TV show....and the election will be lost.