Posted on 09/26/2011 10:18:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
When Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann finished dead last in the Florida straw poll Saturday, more than one onlooker wondered how many nails were left to seal her coffin. The poll, in a state that elected a tea party governor in 2010, seemed to be a devastating blow to the popular conservative.
Instead of warming to Bachmann, Sunshine State straw poll delegates split their vote for an alternative to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Herman Cain.
The big question now is how much air is left in Bachmann’s sails. Did she peak at the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll in Iowa? Opinions are split, but most experts seem to agree that while she’s clearly in trouble, it’s too early to start the Bachmann campaign death clock.
“Michele Bachmann’s last-place finish was obviously not ideal,” media consultant Vincent Harris told The Daily Caller. “Florida is a critical state and one in which every candidate will need to actively participate.”
“But just as people wrote off Herman Cain after Bachmann’s Iowa straw poll victory, it’s far too soon to write her political obituary,” Harris added.
Opinion polls are beginning to suggest otherwise. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Monday had Bachmann at only four percent, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Cain, Texas congressman Ron Paul, Perry, Romney and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. (RELATED: Romney catching up to Perry after Florida debate)
Perry’s late entry into the race, combined with negative press about his low fundraising and unflattering comments about his HPV controversy, haven’t boosted Bachmann’s numbers. And Perry and Cain may be taking over the anti-establishment vacuum Bachmann originally filled.
If there’s any bright side for the congresswoman, though, it’s that expectations for her were low in Florida.
That, along with the first rule of politics — that what goes up must come down — suggests it’s not yet over for Bachmann.
Florida-based consultant Tim Baker, for one, hasn’t written her off.
“I don’t know if it’s a matter of Floridians not being attracted to her as much as not knowing much about her,” he told TheDC. “She made clear that her strategy is Iowa-focused and also made a big show of not ‘contesting’ the [Florida straw] poll.”
“I think the results from this weekend made clear that you have to invest your time in Florida and offer specific solutions to the problems we are facing,” said Baker.
One Florida GOP insider, however, indicated to TheDC that there’s nowhere for Bachmann’s candidacy to go after Florida. With Paul to the right of her and Perry to the more mainstream conservative side, Bachmann is simply stuck with a disintegrating grassroots base.
“Until she takes care of Rick Perry or something else takes care of him, I don’t see her being a viable candidate,” said the Florida insider. “She won the [Iowa] straw poll, then two hours later Rick Perry got in and she was done.”
Some political gurus, as well as the Bachmann campaign itself, point to an Iowa-only strategy to downplay results in other early-primary states.
“We made the decision weeks ago to not to participate in the Florida P5 [Presidency 5] poll,” said Bachmann press secretary Alice Stewart. “We came into the race late and had to make a decision about what poll to participate in and we chose Iowa. We competed in Iowa with less time and resources and time than others, and we won.”
“Not only that, the Iowa straw poll was open to all Iowans with a valid ID, as opposed to a select group of delegates as in the P5 poll,” Stewart added. “Our plan is to continue doing retail politics — which is something Michele does better than any other candidate in this race.”
Harris agreed, telling TheDC that the Minnesota congresswoman “shares a similar appeal as Governor Huckabee in her appeal of evangelical Christians, and if she can tap into that audience [she] will be very successful both in Iowa and South Carolina. Bottom line is anything can happen.”
The Florida GOP insider, however, doesn’t buy it. “It’s hard to run a grassroots campaign with no grassroots. If she’s putting it all in Iowa we’ll see, but unless something starts changing I just don’t see it.”
Her campaign’s stamina will be put to the test later this week with the third-quarter financials deadline. So far, Bachmann has been relying heavily on small donors and direct mail, while Wall Street funders and bundlers have yet to sign on. Regardless, when Bachmann’s financials come out, the only thing that will really matter is whether her bottom line is in the black or in the red.
I'm still a Sarah guy, but should she decide not to run, the Herminator is fine with me.
I saw him speak at a TEA party this past summer and he is a great speaker.
Bachmann simply bought the votes in Iowa where it’s possible to do so. She spent megabucks in Iowa and part of that was buying the ballots to give to people. The Iowa straw poll means nothing for that reason. In Florida that doesn’t work and the poll shows more of where she stands.
We don't elect black presidents either.
It's only happened once, in a freak 4-way election. She has zero executive experience.
It has only happened once, in a freak white-guilt election after eight years of the media demonizing Bush and the Republicans. He has zero executive experience. Bachman would be far superior to the present president.
So would you and I and the first 200 people in the Indianapolis phone book. That ain't sayin' much!!
I guess mine was a wasted comment. :-)
I like and admire Bachman and I think she is a great conservative warrior in the House. She has the right characteristics to be president.
I think all the candidates are suffering from an overload of advice from political advisors to be cautious. I think that is Perry’s problem. He made a true statement about SS but when the media and some of the other candidates zeroed in on that Ponzi Scheme label he beat a hasty retreat. At first he was bold and decisive but now he is hesitant and guarded. He is over coached. That makes him come off as tired or something else. It that exchange with Romney(?) he almost seemed drugged.
As these things continue I expect Cain and Gingrich to gain favor.
Bachmann is pro-gun, so is Palin.
Cain flunks the gun rights test.
Although Cain says he supports the Second Amendment, in the next breath he says he fully supports any and all state gun control/prohibitions.
That is like supporting federal rights for women and blacks, but allowing women and blacks to be slaves if the state laws permit them to be slaves.
I will not support any candidate who allows, and favors, individual states to outlaw guns, or to take away womens voting rights, or to allow slavery, or to prohibit free speech, etc. .
http://2012.presidential-candidates.org/Cain/Gun-Control.php
You wrote:
“Although Cain says he supports the Second Amendment, in the next breath he says he *fully* supports *any and all* state gun control/prohibitions.”
In contrast stand the facts of what he actually said, in context:
BLITZER: All right. Let’s talk about gun control. Do you support any gun control?
CAIN: I support the Second Amendment.
BLITZER: So you don’t — so what’s the answer on gun control?
CAIN: The answer on gun control is I support strong — strongly support the Second Amendment. I don’t support, you know, onerous legislation that’s going to restrict people’s rights in order to be able to protect themselves as guaranteed by the Second Amendment.
BLITZER: Should states or local governments be allowed to control the gun situation? Or should...
CAIN: Yes.
BLITZER: The answer is yes?
CAIN: The answer is yes. That should be a state’s decision.
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