Posted on 01/11/2011 9:00:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The 2012 Republican presidential race is a contest between the "haves" and the "have nots".
The "haves" boast high name identification scores and favorability ratings among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The "have nots", well, don't.
The "haves" group includes four people: former Govs. Mitt Romney (Mass.), Sarah Palin (Alaska) and Mike Huckabee (Ark.) as well as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. The "have not" are everyone else. (Somewhere in between in Texas Rep. Ron Paul who is well known but not regarded as a serious threat for the nomination.)
This chart from Gallup captures the bifurcation of the GOP field nicely.
Almost every presidential nominating fight -- regardless of party -- has a candidate (or maybe even two) who are well-known commodities to primary voters.
Typically, as we saw in 2008 Democratic presidential fight, initial name recognition and favorability numbers, while an advantage, are not conclusive. Early states like Iowa and New Hampshire have outsized influence in the process and victories in one or both can fundamentally re-align national polling in a matter of days.
What's different about this field -- and 538's Nate Silver has expertly made this case -- is that there are four potential candidates who are well known and well liked by the Republican primary electorate, meaning that if one (or even several) of the "haves" slip it's likely that one of the other four will benefit rather than one of the "have nots".
True enough. But, there are -- as always -- a few complicating factors.
First, and most importantly, it remains to be seen whether all of the four "haves" actually run. Romney is a certain candidate and Gingrich seems likely to run. Huckabee and Palin are far more difficult to predict as both have enjoyed significant financial success....
(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...
There is probably limited awareness among the base of Newt's marital history.
I just cant see the GOP nominating a candidate who is twice divorced and now married to his third wife.
Gingrich is dead meat as he has way too much baggage and he’s almost 20 years beyond his best if used by date. Outside of Palin and Pence (who I don’t think is gonna run)there’s really no one on that list I’m excited about with the possible exception of Thune, and I don’t know all that much about him at this point.
I’m guessing a darkhorse will surprise but I have no idea who it could be.
Reagan was divorced once.
Rep.Bachmann isn’t on this chart.
Or Jim DeMint
Last time out it was Rudy McRomney as the haves. And that got us Rudy McRomney who Obama beat like a rented mule.
I will not vote for Gingrich at all. I am not even sure I could hold my nose for Huckster. These are depressing names right there. Gingrich can't even take his marriage vows seriously. And before people start bashing me about the fact that Ronald Reagan was divorced. These two comparisons are not even remotely the same. Ronald Reagan and Jane Wyman were divorce millions of years prior to him even getting into politics. Ronald Reagan did not divorce his wife on Jane's death bed. Ronald Reagan and Jane Wyman did not have an acrimonious divorce and even stayed “friendly” for the rest of their lives. She did not speak nasty about Ronald at all even though the media were on her constantly hoping she would bash him so that the American people would turn on him. So to compare the creepy Gingrich with Ronald Reagan is insulting.
Reagan was divorced once.
I knew someone would bash poor President Reagan so this was written specifically for you:
will not vote for Gingrich at all. I am not even sure I could hold my nose for Huckster. These are depressing names right there. Gingrich can’t even take his marriage vows seriously. And before people start bashing me about the fact that Ronald Reagan was divorced. These two comparisons are not even remotely the same. Ronald Reagan and Jane Wyman were divorce millions of years prior to him even getting into politics. Ronald Reagan did not divorce his wife on Jane’s death bed. Ronald Reagan and Jane Wyman did not have an acrimonious divorce and even stayed “friendly” for the rest of their lives. She did not speak nasty about Ronald at all even though the media were on her constantly hoping she would bash him so that the American people would turn on him. So to compare the creepy Gingrich with Ronald Reagan is insulting.
I really don’t care about Newt’s marital history, as that has nothing to do with politics. He’s mealy-mouthed and seems to switch views on various topics at the drop of a hat. He needs to stick to writing books about history and giving his speeches.
Huckabee is nothing but a tent revival preacher and a snake oil salesman. His tenure as Gov in Arkansas involved big tax increases. He needs to stick to his lucrative TV show and guest shots on other shows on FNC. The people in those crazy, outdated Iowa caucuses seem to like him but I don’t believe Conservatives who do a little research into his track record will vote for him.
Gingrich is no Reagan.
Aside from the MULTIPLE divorces, he spent too much time playing kissy face with Pelosi.
If you want a RINO, go to an F'n zoo!
AI use to subscribe to the Washington Post Weekly.
Then two weeks in a row they carried about 10 page inserts extolling the virtues of Saudi Arabia.
I canceled my subscription.
Cause there ar3e NO redeeming qualities where it comes to Saudi Arabia.
It was then I came to comprehend that the Post is full of lies as they report to support thier preconceived liberal horse crap ideas.
Thune and Pawlty as V.P. in 2012
The next race will be won in the midwest. We must carry OH,IN,MO,WI or IA and at least be competitive in MI and MN-Pawlty’s home state. Although Thune is from SD, it is close to being in midwest.
If it were not for Gingrich, the House would be in Democratic control 60 years running by now.
I was not bashing Reagan, just making a point.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.