That's about as good an explanation as I have seen. The huge tax increases on such a politically incorrect item as cigarettes may seem a safe bet for politicians who don't have the political will to cut spending, but I'll just bet it's going to cost the current mayor of New York City another term. And after Gov. Pataki's deal with the NYC health care worker's union, in which a relatively small number of union members were going to get huge raises paid for by cigarette tax revenues that have yet to materialize, is about to crash and burn, it's a good thing he's not planning to run for another term.
It'll be interesting to see how Pataki will fulfill his promises. I'd bet my bottom dollar that something else will be taxed-something people can't do without and can't produce for themselves or can't obtain from an Indian reservation or another state- so that Pataki can give the union it's big salary increase.
I applaud this speaker for his willingness to address an unpopular (to the PC crowd) topic. If the State(s) think smokers will roll over and pay these punitive taxes on a legal commodity without seeking cheaper alternatives...then they must be smoking something illegal!
Another sterling example of how government policies protect the health, safety, and welfare of the people. However, I would argue that this is not an example of the law of unintended consequences. The government knows full well that as they increase cigarette taxes illicit markets will open up to serve the demand thereby giving the government an opportunity to expand their power by passing more laws to correct this problem, and of course erode individual rights, an added benefit for the government if you will.
For a detailed discussion on how this methodology works see any WOD article.
The economist Arthur Laffer also described this effect in the so called "Laffer Curve" -- raising tax rates beyond a certain point will decrease not increase tax revenue. Given high taxes people will seek other alternatives.