Simon Can Still Win

That's not the trendy thing to say here on the West Coast. For weeks now, reporters and pundits have built a funeral pyre for Bill Simon Jr., declaring his candidacy dead in the water, and waiting only for Election Night results before a final, fiery sendoff for the Republican challenger.

And apparently there's not much love for Mr. Simon on the East Coast. Witness last week's comment by Rep. Tom Davis, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee: "I don't think there's a worse-run race in the country than the governor's race in California for the Republicans. I mean, this was a belt-high, medium fastball and we just seem to have booted it."

Mixed metaphors aside (you "whiff" on a missed pitch, congressman, you "boot" a ball hit at you), there are perfectly valid reasons for Republicans to be less-than-jazzed about California.

For one, consider the money involved. Between them, Simon and Democratic Gov. Gray Davis will have raised and spent about $90 million by Election Day. If little more than five million Californians head to the polls on Nov. 5, as is presently estimated, that means the two parties will have spent about $18 a vote to produce a record-poor turnout. Seems like a waste, doesn't it? $18 can buy you a lot of fun, unless you happen to be taking a date to see Madonna in Swept Away. Of course, that train wreck lasts a little over an hour and a half; Simon and Davis have been going at it for 30 weeks and counting.

And there's the tone of the campaign, which has vacillated from negative, to personally insulting, back to negative. Team Davis has inferred that Simon is a corrupt businessman and a policy know-nothing. Team Simon contends that Davis is a policy do-nothing — that is, when the governor's not selling out policy decisions to the highest donor.

Unfortunately, both candidates have succeeded . . . at convincing Californians that neither is a likable option. As the Sacramento Bee assessed in Sunday's edition: "You don't like the choices. We don't like the choices. If only there were an even vaguely plausible third-party candidate — but there isn't. . . What a choice: A Republican challenger without a clue and a Democratic incumbent without a conscience."

Pretty it's not. In the year of the all-California World Series, California's governor's race ain't exactly the World Series of politics, the pinnacle of 2002 campaigns. Rather, the Davis-Simon match-up is more like a showdown between a couple of last-place teams, with little buzz in the stands and 50,000 fans disguised as empty seats.

Except that there could be a surprise as the game goes into its final inning. Simon could still defy the odds and the experts and pull this thing out. Here's how:

First, since this is California, never underestimate the power of television to sway a race.

During the first two games of the World Series, Team Simon ran a 30-second ad (title: "The Whole Thing Stinks") linking a $55,000 donation to Davis's campaign to a decision by the state to allow a California oil company to dump dioxin into San Francisco Bay. It's repeating a story that ran at great length earlier this year in the San Jose Mercury News. But with one important difference: A TV image of a pipeline spewing chemical sludge is far more compelling to voters than print allegations of a governor for sale.

For months, Simon has hammered away at the image of Davis as a "pay to play" governor — you give him $100,000 and doors open. California newspapers have chronicled example after example of benefits for big donors. But in terms of making voters angry enough to turn on Davis, it probably requires more than in-depth newspaper stories. Maybe the dioxin ad, as well as other Simon ads with a clever tag line ("Had Enough? Fire Gray Davis"), have a bigger impact on the electorate than is estimated.

The second unknown that could work to Simon's benefit: voter turnout — or a lack thereof.

In 2002, the California electorate is internally conflicted. According to a survey by the Progressive Policy Institute of California, eight out of ten likely voters say they're paying close attention to the governor's race, but more than 55 percent don't like the Simon-Davis match-up. Here's the big news for Simon: Three out of ten voters say they'll skip the race altogether, or vote for a third-party candidate.

Think of Simon-Davis as a seesaw: The lower the turnout, in a state with more Democratic voters, the better Simon's chances for an upset climb (well, that, and a big rainstorm in San Francisco and Los Angeles on Election Day wouldn't hurt either).

Finally, a third variable: the great unknown — namely, what we still don't know about Gray Davis.

Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court cleared way for the release of two letters, sealed by a federal judge, claiming that Davis was involved in a bribery scandal back when he was California's state controller. The allegations, by a Beverly Hills executive (at the time on his way to federal prison), are that Davis participated in a scheme to exchange campaign donations for political favors.

Perhaps that allegation turns out to be a bombshell. Or maybe it's dud (having worked on the Bush-Quayle '92 campaign, when we kept waiting for that picture of a naked Bill Clinton at a '60s protest, I can assure you these things seldom work out). But at the very least, its emergence in the news cycle could force Davis to spend the campaign's remaining days on the defensive over his fundraising. And that's problematic for Davis, as his intent is to ride out the last two weeks sticking to the California Democratic mantra of abortion, the environment, and guns. The last thing any unpopular politician like Davis can afford is an unpalatable story right as voters are getting ready to pull the lever.

So there you have it: three reasons why Bill Simon just might end up surprising us all — (1) he has good ads in a state where TV is crucial; (2) voter turnout may work to his advantage; and (3) his opponent could be more ethically-challenged than imagined.

With the Giants and Angels going at it, it's been the year of the wild card in California. In that vein, maybe Simon turns out to be the unlikeliest of winners.

You Can Make A Difference! FReepWatch !! What's Goin' Down?
...DATE../..TIME...	...CITY../..SITE...	...ADDRESS..	...MORE INFORMATION...
Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm	Chico, CA	CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico	CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs
Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm	Eureka, CA	FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay	Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-)
Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm	Palo Alto, CA	BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road	Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster.
Tuesday 10/22/2002	Los Angeles, CA	Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ?	Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc.
Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm	San Francisco, CA	West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally San Francisco City Hall at the Civic Center	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available.

Updated 21:00 PM 10/20/02

The second unknown that could work to Simon's benefit: voter turnout — or a lack thereof.

In 2002, the California electorate is internally conflicted. According to a survey by the Progressive Policy Institute of California, eight out of ten likely voters say they're paying close attention to the governor's race, but more than 55 percent don't like the Simon-Davis match-up. Here's the big news for Simon: Three out of ten voters say they'll skip the race altogether, or vote for a third-party candidate.

Think of Simon-Davis as a seesaw: The lower the turnout, in a state with more Democratic voters, the better Simon's chances for an upset climb (well, that, and a big rainstorm in San Francisco and Los Angeles on Election Day wouldn't hurt either).

Finally, a third variable: the great unknown — namely, what we still don't know about Gray Davis.

We need the Nathanson letter released and then Rain on November 5th. It CAN HaPPen!

Great catch!

I'll ping my list. See novak's article on how Bush has a problem because Simon is ahead in a weekend Poll!

It is on the CalGov2002 list!

Memories:

California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis

AND......................

...to see what bad, bad things Davis has done... - CLICK HERE

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles.

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles.

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

See also, from www.CNSnews.com:

California Puzzle
By Robert D. Novak
CNSNews.com Commentary
October 21, 2002

The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association (CTA), made available to Republicans Friday morning, was startling.

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent. The three-day tracking roll gave Davis a mere 2.7 percentage point lead.

Those numbers collide with Democratic surveys that show a double-digit lead for Davis. They also force a decision on George W. Bush that must be made instantly. Should he pay a final one-day visit to San Diego, perhaps next Monday, to affirm Simon as the Republican Party's California standard-bearer in good standing? Or should he not risk the damage to his prestige in the Golden State that could result from association with a drubbing?

At stake is not just the way the nation's most populous state will be governed for the next four years. The baroque Simon-Davis contest is drenched in 2004 presidential politics. President Bush's friends here are concentrating on his becoming the first Republican to carry the state since his father in 1988. Whether Davis tries for the Democratic nomination in 2004 will be determined by his re-election effort this year.

Davis ought to have nothing to worry about. The California Republican Party, non-performing and torn by bitter feuds, has hit bottom after decades of decline. Democrats enjoy immense advantages in money, organization and even the erstwhile Republican superiority in getting out the absentee vote.

On top of this, Simon's error-plagued campaign shows that a shakedown candidacy for the county board of supervisors or state assembly would have helped. Indeed, the conventional wisdom remains that Davis will win easily against a man best known for being the son of financier William E. Simon, a former secretary of the Treasury.

Diluting these immense advantages, Gray Davis is undoubtedly the most unpopular governor of California that anybody can remember. Prominent Democrats privately express contempt for him as a relentless fund-raiser without principles. One well-known elected government official told me he had endorsed Davis as far back as the 1998 Democratic primary but now considers him "another Nixon." He rages that Simon is about to be wiped out, propelling Davis into the White House. He plans to vote for Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo.

The poll for the CTA (by Washington-based Republican pollster Jan Van Lohuizen) showed in the Tuesday-through-Thursday three-day roll last week that 52.9 percent of Californians think the state is on the "wrong track" compared with 30.4 percent who say it is going in the "right direction." Davis has never recovered from his handling of last year's energy problems.

Most dangerous for Davis are possible defections of Latinos (now comprising one third of the state's population). The legislature's Latino caucus refused to endorse Davis because he vetoed a bill enabling illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a measure shown by surveys to be widely unpopular. In response, the governor moved quickly to get 17 of the 22 caucus members to sign an endorsement.

Questions cannot be definitively answered until Election Day. Will the lingering undecided voters just stay home? Could an usually light turnout defeat Davis? Has Simon, the victim of Davis's unremitting attack ads and his own mishaps, become unelectable in California?

There are loyal, well-placed California Republicans who feel Simon should never have run in the first place, is a sure loser, and that the president should stay out of the Golden State for the next two weeks. Published reports suggest that he might come into Rep. Gary Condit's district in the Central Valley to support an underdog Republican bid for Condit's successor. That won't happen. If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon.

This is a test for the president and his political team. A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats. Bush backers in California distrust the CTA poll, and fear humiliation for the president. A gambler would come here, but Republican presidents usually don't gamble.

Copyright 2002, Creators Syndicate, Inc.

You Can Make A Difference! FReepWatch !! What's Goin' Down?
...DATE../..TIME...	...CITY../..SITE...	...ADDRESS..	...MORE INFORMATION...
Monday 10/21/2002 - 12 pm	Chico, CA	CSU-Chico Corner of Warner St and Big Chico	CHICO AREA FREEPERS, HERE YA GO! A RARE OPPORTUNITY to DUMP DAVIS!!! Gather at NOON! Bring your "For Sale: Gray Davis!" signs
Monday 10/21/2002 - 3 pm	Eureka, CA	FReeP Davi$ at the Warfinger Building Next to Small Boat Basin Near Washington and the Bay	Could be another Union Rally!!! If you go, U R on yur own .. But We're with Ya in Spirit!!! :-)
Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm	Palo Alto, CA	BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road	Rescheduled Event GraYouT Davi$ Cancelled this the Last Time because he was BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster.
Tuesday 10/22/2002	Los Angeles, CA	Chamber of Commerce / Small Business Conference related ?	Still need info to confirm this is a potential FReep opportunity; location, organization, etc.
Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm	San Francisco, CA	West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally City Hall - across from the Civic Center Plaza. Carlton Goodlett Place between McAllister St. and Grove St.	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available.

Updated 10:00 AM 10/21/02

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