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Posted on 10/05/2002 1:01:15 PM PDT by forest
scott_c_jordan@yahoo.com
A truism holds that wherever a candidate's starting position is in the political spectrum, as the general election approaches he should run to the middle.
In California we are seeing this tiresome script played once more, as Republican Bill Simon strives to regain momentum lost to a bogus scandal and rebuild stature diminished by his opponent's well-funded assaults. Simon -- a photogenic and accomplished outsider with sterling GOP genes and a bracing primary-season message of limited government and individual liberty -- early on adopted a cash- conserving rope-a-dope strategy against the inept and unpopular incumbent governor, Gray Davis. Happily, as contributions have finally begun to flow, he's begun campaigning aggressively. Meanwhile, Davis' negatives stagger:
Now, consider California political party registration trends(3, 4):
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Eligible |
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Democrat |
47.4% (6.7 million) |
44.7% (6.7 million ) |
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Republican |
36.8% (5.3 million ) |
35.2% (5.3 million ) |
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Unstated |
10.6% (1.5 million ) |
15.0% (2.2 million ) |
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Unregistered |
25.8% (5.5 million ) |
29.8% (6.4 million ) |
Clearly, both parties are treading water, but the group of voters who have either opted out of the major parties or out of registering altogether has grown almost three times as fast as the eligible population. Yet, Republican participation in 2002's primary was vastly superior to that of the numerically-superior Democrats: 2.33 million vs. 2.4 million(5). 43% of Republicans turned out, versus less than 35% of Democrats.
Why the comparative enthusiasm?
Part of it is that the Democrat nominee was bound to be the creepy Davis no matter what. But it's more than that: Bill Simon won a crushing victory, holding the Democrat-Lite opponent anointed by the GOP hierarchy to a single county in the vast and supposedly leftist state.
This raises several questions, but only one plausible answer: Why is the Silent Majority turned off by the major parties and even voting itself? Why did Republicans hand Simon such a convincing primary victory?
The answer: both parties have deserted the voters. California remains the State of Reagan, who slaughtered a powerful incumbent Democrat as an outsider running with a positive, limited-government message of liberty and constitutional fidelity. Simon's upbeat message channeled Reagan and resonated with voters who'd waited too long for a reason to vote.
That was the primary. Simon should have immediately consolidated power throughout the state's notoriously fractious GOP. He didn't. So now, a month before the election, he's slowly knitting factions together, seemingly helped very little by Bush's point-man in California, Gerald Parsky. Simon's job would be so much easier if he had a power structure behind him, but maybe he didn't see the utility of that. Chalk that up to inexperience. Being an outsider cuts both ways.
Today, he's busy hiding his conservative/Constitutionalist lights under whatever bushels he can stuff 'em, for fear of offending those shadowy "independents" the handlers tell him are hiding to his left. That demotivates the legions of liberty-minded foot-soldiers who got him nominated. It also cedes legitimacy to the notion that the Silent Majority necessarily resides to his left. His spectacular primary performance argues otherwise.
But y'know what? He's still likely to win. Davis is damaged goods and everybody knows it. If Davis didn't have all those millions in the bank, not a single pundit would give him a shred of a chance, not after his performance over the past four years, not after running the state from a $12 billion surplus to a $24 billion deficit, not after an appalling four-year socialist spending spree, not after more than half of the state's high-schoolers failed their achievement tests(6), not after the energy meltdown and the water and transportation meltdowns already emerging. And we've seen time and again that money isn't necessarily what wins here. Ask Michael Huffington.
So what wins?
Dirty tricks, for one thing (ask Bruce Herschensohn), but Simon's good-guy nature disqualifies that option. What's left, in this election, is evident from the statistics: it's the base, stupid. With his overt rewards to his donors and legislative pearls to his most dependable pickpocket constituencies, Davis recognizes that. Time for Simon to do likewise, and dance with the girl that brought him.
** Scott Jordan is a scientist and engineer residing in Northern California, present Chairman of the Silicon Valley chapter of the Republican Liberty Caucus and soon to be RLC State Chair. <http://www.BayAreaRLC.org>
1. <http://www.egray.org>
2. <http://www.latimes.com/includes/ramirez/ramirez_20020820.gif>
3. <http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/ror_090602.htm>
4.<http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror_0196.htm>
5. <http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/sov/2002_primary/reg.pdf>
6. <http://www.sacbee.com/content/news/story/4609022p-5627259c.html>
Simon is a photogenic and accomplished outsider with sterling GOP genes and a bracing primary-season message of limited government and individual liberty.
Davis has pay-to-play corruption, fiscal deficit, unemployment and failing schools. Assaulted by the Greens and beset by clamoring Democrat dependency groups, Davis is busily shoring up his left bank, hawking abortion and Marxist nostrums like a carny, signing spectacularly ill-advised legislation like last week's paid-leave abomination, and in general doling out favors like a Seventh Avenue whore.
Simon won a crushing victory, holding the Democrat-Lite opponent anointed by the GOP hierarchy to a single county in the vast and supposedly leftist state. California remains the State of Reagan, who slaughtered a powerful incumbent Democrat as an outsider running with a positive, limited-government message of liberty and constitutional fidelity.
Simon is likely to win. Davis is damaged goods and everybody knows it.
Simon won't do dirty tricks.
The answer: It's the base, stupid.
He can win, that way.
calgov2002:
 calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register |
Next step: Who is leading the charge to get people involved? Are any citizen's groups involved in insuring voters get out and actually vote for Simon?
Many of us hope Simon beats Davis badly. But, most of us do not count -- we are not there and cannot vote. Therefore, what we are hoping to see is a grassroots movement get active with letters to the editor, op-eds and other publications to inform their friends and neighbors about Simon.
Where's the action ?
It's time, you know. It's now or never. . . . .
Part of the reason people register with no party, besides disenchantment with the two major parties, is that it affords more choice. Decline-to-state voters in California can vote in the primaries of one of most of the parties, and can vote for everything except party leaders (and perhaps the Presidential nominee). Essentially, one can change his party affiliation at each primary, up to the day of the election, without re-registering.
Who knows whether the decline to state (DTS) voters who requested a Republican ballot voted for Simon or for one of the other Republicans. More of the DTS voters probably chose Republican ballots than democrat ballots, because the Republican gubernatorial candidate selection was more interesting, but they might not have been motivated to request partisan ballots at all, and many might not have even known about the new law (even though it was printed prominently on the voter guide and sample ballots).
Supposedly, these DTS voters are all moderate, and they were all going to vote for the "moderate" Riordan, who was supposedly a viable candidate according to the media. Riordan lost by such a huge margin to Simon, so this group probably had little influence. I hope they are more conservative than the media think.
I don't recall any news reports of exit polls categorized by party affiliation. (Then again, I don't recall any exit polls last March....) The Statement of Vote issued by the Secretary of State did not have information about how many DTS voters requested partisan ballots.
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