Bill Simon One Point Ahead - SurveyUSA Poll Shows Tight Governor's Race

Survey USA ^ | 07/30/2002 | Survey USA

[Impeach98]

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon has a narrow lead in a poll among potential voters.

The poll was conducted by News10 and SurveyUSA. Pollsters asked 861 likely California voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today. Nearly 47 percent said they would vote for Simon, and 45 percent said they would vote for Gov. Gray Davis.

Eight percent were undecided.

The margin of error is 3.4 percent.

Simon's lead was greatest in the Central Valley. Davis had the most support in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

According to the poll, Simon led pro-life voters by 33 points. Davis led pro-choice voters by 16 points.

Men preferred Simon by 6 points. Women preferred Davis by 4 points.

[KneelBeforeZod]

Simon is getting hammered in the ads, as expected...I don't rememer seeing any ads for Simon on TV. then again Red Davis has all the money.

[KneelBeforeZod]

I freepmailed you.... I have a program that will do that, you can email it to me.

[Impeach98]

"Let's see, forty minus forty, seven minus two.. a one point lead? ;-) (yeah the magic of rounding, but still)"

My bad! LOL :)

I got an email about this story being on this news website and it had the specific poll numbers of:

Simon - 46.7
Davis - 45.4

Hence why I wrote "1" point - but you are write - if it was showing a Dem/Liberal lead it would be "2" in the media's mind!

[Impeach98]

:( Unfortunately, no...

Does Adobe have any options on "Save As" as a different file extension?

If you haven't figured it out still tomorrow holler and I will email to some computer friends I met online (via an Ace of Base fan club LOL! Ace of Base fans are very computer savvy... just leave it at that!!)

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm going to vote for Simon of course. But he'd better get off his ass pretty quick or he's going to lose this election,regardless of what the polls say. With Davis' negatives Attila the Hun should be able to beat him. But I don't see Simon getting out there and convincing people that he's the man for the job. There's even talk of running Riordan as an independent as a solution, not a solution I'm in favor of because he'll split the vote, which means Davis automatically wins. I don't see Simon as demagogue, but doing a better job running the state because he's better businessman than Davis is hardly an inspiring message. He's got to show he's got a bit more fire in his gut and a vision. If he doesn't it's unfortunately four more years of Gray.

[KneelBeforeZod]

adobe photoshop and photoshop elements CAN do it... just tried it out when I saw that post

[KneelBeforeZod]

There must be a cheap place to get bumper stickers...tons probably...we should start a program of leaving dump davis stickers on dumpsters and trash cans all over our towns....

which by the way, under Cali law is NOT vandalism. which is why taggers moved to leaving those name tags with their 'tags' all over. Well that's my guess anyway.

BTW how did the picnic go? couldn't make it...I was in Cancun....

[Norwell]

I would think he'd be farthest ahead in Orange County. What happened to them.

[Political Junkie Too]

Despite all the carping here, it looks like the Simon strategy targeting Hispanic voters is working better than many of us suspected.

Hispanics are very Christian. This explains why Simon, and Bush, do well with them.

-PJ

[goldstategop]

I think this poll is excellent news! GrayDown has been running NOTHING but negative ads on their airwaves this summer and if anything his poll numbers have dropped! If I were GrayDown's political strategist, I'd have to ask if my candidate were getting his money's worth. The answer to that question so far is a resounding NO! I mean GrayDown should not just be defining his opponent, he should be giving people a reason to vote for him. He hasn't managed to do that yet. Moreover, its just not Davis doesn't have a positive vision of what he'd like to do in a second term that he's not offering voters, its that whatever he does somehow turns people off. And as an incumbent seeing reelection the last thing you want to do is make people not like you to begin with.

[patriciaruth]

What do you mean, the first media poll showing Simon ahead?

What were those other polls that were posted several months ago?

And don't kid yourself. Those charity fraud, corporate fraud ads Davis is running are going to eat Simon alive.

I haven't seen one rebuttal ad by Simon to all that barrage. He's running his campaign like an amateur against a vicious professional politician who will stop at nothing.

[JustAmy]

How about on your dumpster? Let's get the word out!!!!!


Go Simon!

[JustAmy]

I need to look at old freeepmail; someone told me they had about 80 stickers left. I can mail them to whomever wants them if he gets them to me, but 80 won't last long.

You missed a great picnic! It was the hottest week-end we've had this year (naturally). The temp for our Friday night Rally was 109 .... Ughhhhhh. That almost did what the idiot pro-terrorists could never do. We took turns standing in our man-made shade and drank lots of water. We had about 50 for the picnic on Saturday. The temp kept many away but it was not bad at the picnic area (only 105). Our area was slightly elevated and we had a warm breeze (very slight). Cool Guy brought out the water guns after we ate; no one seemed to mind a little water. Well some people received more than their fair share. LOL If we do it again next year, we will probably move the date to either June or September.

It must have been mighty warm in Cancun also. Hope you had fun!

[Revolutionary]

Something that is very telling and an area that Republicans need to work on:

Women polling is usually shown as a gender gap. That losses steam when the women's vote is broken down. Republicans get about 60% of the "soccer moms" but Democrats get 98% of the welfare moms. This always skews the women's vote. Teen pregnancy, welfare reform, and government dependancy is a significant impact on voting patterns and work in these areas may have a lot more bang for the buck. But just as important, is the spin that is put on the women's vote. Women are more likely to vote with a majority. That is why the women's vote is spun so much by the Democrats. We need to spread the truth about the "soccer moms".

Go Simon! Kick the stuffed shirt out of Davis!

[Moby Grape]

It will take a 10% or more lead to win....democrat voter fraud is rampant in California....If Simon has a 10 point lead, he could win by 2 to 3%.

[Coop]

Gee, I wish someone would tell this Simon fella he can't possibly beat Grayout Davis and end our misery. I mean, come on! Every time I turn around Simon is leading in another poll! It's ridiculous. He's now led in nine of eleven polls, but we all know there's absolutely no way he could possibly ever beat the omnipotent and well-liked incumbent.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go spread my pessimism on other election threads. :-)

[Coop]

It doesn't include third parties; it was a straight Davis/Simon race. It's likely this accounts for some of the discrepencies with other polls that show Simon further ahead; they included Green votes, which are likely to erode the Davis margin significantly.

Excellent point about the greens. But your comment about blacks voting at 90% is a touch overrated. I don't have historical numbers handy (I know someone around here does), but I believe the black vote is historically more like 85% - still enough to support your point on Davis' current 72%. The 2000 election wasn't very representative, especially when factoring in the voting fraud (outrageous percentage of voters).

[GraniteStateConservative]

I think Perry will win, but I think it will be about as close as the Simon-Davis contest-- which is pitiful. Recall that Perry barely won in 1998 in the first place. GWB won the state then by 18 more points than Perry did then. The problem is that Cornyn needs a landslide by Perry to bring him to victory.

[LS]

If your stats on Hispanics and blacks is right, then all those naysayers who blasted Bush for his "inclusion" strategy owe the President a BIG apology.

[CounterCounterCulture]

The quick, dirty way would be to do a PRINT SCREEN, then edit/trim your image in whatever photo editing program available on your computer, even PAINT.