I would think he will win Orange County with no problem, but the area has changed a great deal over the years, particuarly in the older areas in North Orange County. There's been a lot of growth in ethnic communities, and not all of them have arrived here legally. Even some of those that were staunch Republican, like the Vietnamese in Garden Grove and Westminster, are registering as Dem's in larger numbers as the young who have no memory of life under communism find it more attractive to gain power through the group politics of ethnic identity. Add to that government efforts to promote "diversity" with section eight housing and you have a lot more people ready to pull the lever for the Rat's.
This is not to say that Americans of different backgrounds are automatically a bad thing and the county should be Lilly white. But the fact is that the Dem's use identity politics to their advantage and promote a wedge between white males and all those they have "oppressed", but I'm sure all of us here know that.
Added to all this is the growth of the area, which means more public school teachers, DMV and Caltrans workers, university professors, city clerks, and so forth. I wonder which way they vote?