Posted on 07/16/2002 9:40:03 AM PDT by John Jorsett
Edited on 04/12/2004 5:40:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
It's very difficult to unseat a political officeholder, even one who is less than universally beloved or even respected.
Successfully challenging an incumbent is, essentially, a two-stage process. First, a majority of voters must become disenchanted enough to entertain the notion of an ouster. And then the challenger must sell himself or herself as a plausible replacement while steering the campaign into a referendum on the incumbent's record. If one fails in either stage, even an unpopular incumbent will win.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
HOW THE F@@K WAS SIMON SUPPOSED TO KNOW IT WAS ILLEGAL IF KPMG SOLD IT TO HIM!
Thanks to "Free the USA" for getting it on the list.
How about the Strawberries for Capt Davis .
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And that's the truth. It doesn't take money. It takes vision and communications skills.
It isn't up to Simon to point out Davis' failures. They're obvious. The problem is that the "professionals" lack imagination or sufficient understanding of conservative principles to produce and sell a positive message to swing voters. If we don't come up with those alternatives and get the public to understand them, we deserve to lose. They exist.
We are all getting damned tired of excuses and promises from the campaign that it will all come out after Labor Day. That's too late to explain creative ideas and TV isn't the way to get them out cost effectively. We have a unique opportunity because of the protracted nature of this campaign and we are blowing it.
The old adage is... "In every encounter, a sale is made... Either I sell you a good idea, or you sell me on why it's no good!"
People advising/running his campaign, like old warriors, are trying to run it like campaigns of the past. We've never had this lengthy of a Guber campaign before, as you correctly point out.
There's an "opportunity cost" for not at least trying something new and different in these strange circumstances. Anything to catch the people's imagination!
Let's not forget that traditionally, campaigns gear up after labor day. To date, Simon has been holding onto his cash and letting the bad news about Dufus fester in the press. It's summer now, and only the political junkies are paying much attention. This class, on both sides (including, of course, we at FR), have already made up their minds. Advertising now would be a waste of cash. Come September, the control rods will be pulled by both sides, and the meda will of course fall behind Dufus and attack Simon full force. The best that California Republicans can do now is: 1) Contribute to Simon's campaign; and 2) Contact Simon's campaign to find out how to help in your locality.
We have nearly four months before the election and THE AVERAGE VOTER is NOT focusing on the campaign. We -- including Dan Walters who lives and breathes politics -- look for instant information in an instant information age.
The fact is, Davis' negatives are high and haven't dropped. Simon DOES need to give the voters a reason to vote for him, but they have to be LISTENING. For the umpteenth time, I'll point out that EVERYONE said Simon waited too long in the primary to attack Riordan, go on t.v., radio, etc., etc. and he couldn't possibly make it up.
Simon won by nearly 19 points.
It would have been foolhardy to go on television or radio during the Christmas season, as some people argued. It is foolhardy to waste resources in the summer when people are on vacation, kids are out of school, people are watching less television, and generally not thinking about the election.
Simon is doing things right. Davis is keeping his negatives high because he's a liberal and now everyone is realizing it. After Labor Day, Simon should come out with positive ads, and more of the anti-Davis humorous ads that were playing across the state.
Notice, fellow Freepers, that Davis ran $4 million of ads that ushered in a five point DROP in his popularity. They have been pulled. I believe he ran to ads to entice Simon into wasting his money. Davis has more money and will always have more money because he shakes down businesses and unions for contributions -- pay-to-play. I'm glad Simon didn't fall for the trap.
Eight weeks is MORE than enough time to win the election when people are LISTENING.
Go Simon!
I agree! We need to be working locally. That's what grassroots is all about. Working in our neighborhoods, in our churches, with our family, etc., etc.
I have a Bill Simon t-shirt from the primary that I wear on the weekends when I go out. Every time I leave the house, someone makes positive comments on Simon, or says something like, "Is he running against Davis? I'll vote for him." The sentiment is ripe for conversion, and it's up to us to be supportive of Simon in public.
In fact, I've been seeing more and more Simon bumperstickers on cars, and the ONLY Davis bumper sticker I have seen was at the Capitol. I went to the gym two nights ago and saw two cars (that I didn't recognize!) with Simon stickers. In the grocery store parking lot last week I saw one car with a Simon sticker.
Anyway, my point is it is up to US, the grassroots, to spread the message.
Dump Davis! Vote for Simon!
Check out Simon's ads ... they are new and different and received much attention. My favorite is "MAIDS"
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