[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Help out the Modelers, Davis will break the equations!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

calgov2002:

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[Dog Gone]

I think the model will show that a Governor who turns a $14 billion surplus into at least a $24 billion deficit in one year always loses.

[My2Cents]

This kind of mathematical formula to predict human behavior reminds me of the "Foundation" S/F series...Harry Seldin was it? -- saw the future through mathematical calculations. People are not that predictable.

[VA Advogado]

If he starts out with a 50 base in this model, and gets 6.8 just for being an incumbent, according to this formula no incumbent can possibly lose.

[John Jorsett]

Thanks for the pings. This particular story reminds me of stock market analysts who take historial market data, find the correlations in it, then attempt to use that to predict the future. It always breaks down eventually.

[daviddennis]

Problem is, I don't think there has been a time in the history of the state when a governor was such an obvious failure as good ol' Gray.

Usually the incumbant is perceived as someone who's done a reasonably good job with the state, despite all obstacles.

Pretty tough to think of that with Gray. And all the money in the world won't change that.

D

[goldstategop]

Let's see: the same academic modellers who predicted Al Gore would be elected President. Close but no cigar for them. Bwahahaha!!!