California: Political equation holds up well for state governor races

The Orange County Register ^ | Monday, July 8, 2002 | JAMES DOTI Chapman University President

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Economists have developed equations that fairly accurately forecast the results of presidential elections. An equation developed by our A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, for example, used only information on real GDP and inflation to correctly call 19 of the 25 presidential elections held in the 20th century. Not bad, but it's possible to do an even better job calling the results of California's gubernatorial elections.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Help out the Modelers, Davis will break the equations!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

calgov2002:

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[Dog Gone]

I think the model will show that a Governor who turns a $14 billion surplus into at least a $24 billion deficit in one year always loses.

[My2Cents]

This kind of mathematical formula to predict human behavior reminds me of the "Foundation" S/F series...Harry Seldin was it? -- saw the future through mathematical calculations. People are not that predictable.

[I_Love_My_Husband]

Dog...please send those statistics to the Simon campaign. That is more fuel for the fire. Ok?

[VA Advogado]

If he starts out with a 50 base in this model, and gets 6.8 just for being an incumbent, according to this formula no incumbent can possibly lose.

[John Jorsett]

Thanks for the pings. This particular story reminds me of stock market analysts who take historial market data, find the correlations in it, then attempt to use that to predict the future. It always breaks down eventually.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I posted this after reading it yesterday and was not feeling so good about Simon's chances and then I read this:
Simon Maintains Big Poll Lead Over Davis
DESPITE $4 MILLION IN NEGATIVE ADVERTISING - DAVIS FALLS FLAT

And now I feel so much better than I can now see this article as a big laffer!

I hope that makes sense!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

That is what I would believe and see article linked at post #8 for a possible confirmation,

[Wait4Truth]

The "experts" also said that gore was going to beat Bush in a landslide...

[NormsRevenge]

It makes good sense to me ...

Unlike presidential forecasting equations, we found that the outcomes of California's gubernatorial elections, at least from 1950 to the present, do not appear to depend on the economy.

Surprise!!! This time it does..

DUMP DAVI$ & the Den of Socialists

GO SIMON

[daviddennis]

Problem is, I don't think there has been a time in the history of the state when a governor was such an obvious failure as good ol' Gray.

Usually the incumbant is perceived as someone who's done a reasonably good job with the state, despite all obstacles.

Pretty tough to think of that with Gray. And all the money in the world won't change that.

D

[goldstategop]

Let's see: the same academic modellers who predicted Al Gore would be elected President. Close but no cigar for them. Bwahahaha!!!