Posted on 07/08/2002 9:14:38 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan
DESPITE $4 MILLION IN NEGATIVE ADVERTISING - DAVIS FALLS FLAT
SACRAMENTO - A new poll by a leading national polling firm shows Republican challenger Bill Simon maintaining a commanding 39% to 31% lead over incumbent Governor Gray Davis. This confirms a recent series of statewide polls reporting similar results and reveals Davis' million-dollar television attack has had a more negative impact on Davis himself than Simon.
The poll also shows that while Davis is now facing a tough challenge from the left, voters are increasingly reaching the conclusion that it is time for a new governor to lead the state.
This poll of 600 likely voters, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies July 30 to July 2, is the latest in a series of private polls - by Democrat, Republican and nonpartisan groups - reflecting Simon opening up a considerable lead over Gray Davis since the primary election.
The San Francisco Chronicle recently reported on a Democrat poll showing the governor trailing by nine points. With just 120 days until Election Day, many of these polls show Davis stuck in the 30s, well below the 50% threshold that incumbents need to be considered "healthy."
A major problem for Davis is the growing support for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, who gets almost 5% of the vote, mirroring results in other polls. The 5% threshold is usually considered for inclusion in statewide debates. All of the minor candidates combined receive an unusually high 9% of the vote. The Camejo attack on Davis for forsaking principles in favor of campaign contributions seems to be taking hold, as disaffected liberals are finding an alternative to Davis.
Voter support for Davis continues to plummet after nearly two years of failed leadership on energy, a trend now being aggravated by failed leadership on the budget, roads, water, veterans, homeland security and education. The governor's decision to break his pledge against new taxes is also taking its toll. On the important re-elect question, only 31% support the re-election of the governor, with only 21% definitely in favor of returning him to office. A whopping 57% support a new person in the corner office, and 47% definitely do not want Davis.
Simon's chief strategist, Sal Russo, said, "I have seen bad poll numbers for an incumbent before, but the voters have clearly figured out that Gray Davis has been a failure as governor. They know that if he has another four years of ignoring the budget, energy, education and quality of life, he will finish turning the Golden State into a rotten state to live in and raise a family."
Davis has developed a serious gender gap as well. While women support Simon over Davis by 37% to 33%, men overwhelmingly support Simon by 41% to 29%. Men favor a new person as governor by 59%, while women are only slightly less at 56% wanting the governor removed from office.
The Simon campaign's outreach to Latino voters is clearly having an mpact -- holding Davis to merely 37% of the Latino vote and 47% wanting a new person as governor. The Simon campaign launched their statewide media effort with television and radio commercials targeting Latinos on the education issue. Simon, who addresses voters in Spanish at the end of the spots, chose to highlight the priority of the campaign to reach the state's Latino voters by beginning a major push on Spanish language television and radio statewide first. Russo added, "our campaign of reaching out to all voters is working, and beginning our campaign with Spanish language advertising is already showing up in the polls."
The stunning strength of Simon in numerous polls comes as the Davis campaign had hoped to turn around his sagging support with a $4 million negative television campaign. The series of Davis attack ads falsely accuse Simon of being a poor businessman, focusing on the outrageous charge that he caused the failure of a savings and loan seized by federal regulators. As Investor's Business Daily pointed out in a recent editorial, "[t]he spots are false on every key point." Russo added, "The Davis campaign consists of nothing but negative ads, and it is failing like it should. Voters can tell when they are being lied to, and Davis is not getting away with this bucket of slime."
A clear demonstration of the failed Davis strategy is seen in the Sacramento media market, as Davis faces his worst numbers in the market where his negative ads are running the most. A whopping 68% of Sacramento area voters want a new governor - making this a stronghold for the Simon campaign.
Adding to the irony, the only area of the state where Davis is ahead of Simon - the San Francisco Bay Area - in one of the few parts of the state where the Davis ads are NOT running. Russo expressed hope the Davis campaign would soon launch the negative spots in San Francisco because "we want to win in every part of California."
The worst news for Davis in the poll is the status of the 19% of undecided voters. They may be undecided about whom to vote for, but they know for sure that they do not want to re-elect Gray Davis. Of the 19% undecided, almost two-thirds want a new person as governor. 64% of the undecided voters said they would not be voting for Davis. As Simon becomes better known, it is likely his lead over Davis will only grow larger.
John Herrington, Simon Campaign Chairman, said after reviewing the poll results, "I knew at the very beginning that Bill Simon would make a great candidate for governor and a great governor. It looks like the people of California are seeing the same thing now."
LOL! I love that line.
You go Bill......!!!!
That's the nice thing about landslides -- the two ARE linked. When Davis's poll numbers are in the toilet this October, the Demonrats will be totally disillusioned and unmotivated as election day rolls around. Turnout is going to make this thing a route and we'll be sending some fresh new faces to Congress and the State Legislature.
I want to hear that the California Attorney General, Bill Lockyer, has been voted out.
This is FAR from over.
Is Bush stumping for Simon much at this point? That could really put the PRK out of reach for Davis.
So what would Davis now do, or perhaps they would claim if they had done nothing Simon would be even further ahead!
Perhaps this is why Davis is playing up hard to the Law Enforcement higher ups?
That is, he has run out of many of his campaign options so he is going after groups that are more centrist!
calgov2002:
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LOL! Give this punk rocker Davis the heave ho! Go Cali! You can still be redeemed!
A major problem for Davis is the growing support for Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, who gets almost 5% of the vote, mirroring results in other polls. The 5% threshold is usually considered for inclusion in statewide debates. All of the minor candidates combined receive an unusually high 9% of the vote. The Camejo attack on Davis for forsaking principles in favor of campaign contributions seems to be taking hold, as disaffected liberals are finding an alternative to Davis.
Anyone out there who still thinks that Davis losing the Green vote is not important needs to quit inhaling something, take a clear deep breath and grab hold of reality.
With just 120 days until Election Day, many of these polls show Davis stuck in the 30s, well below the 50% threshold that incumbents need to be considered "healthy."
Quick, somebody give grayboy an excedrin........
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