[Poohbah]

Actually, the only key factor is keeping the Democrat base from turning out.

The Dems are simply losing their scare-'em issues for the base, and their attacks on Bush are looking less and less focused on reality--just like they did in 1994, BTW.

[Austin Willard Wright]

Well yes but you seem to be assuming that a more conservative approach by Dubya would encourage the Democrats to to turn out. I see no evidence for this. I do see evidence, however, that a more moderate approach will discourage conservatives from turning out.