[Austin Willard Wright]

Well yes but you seem to be assuming that a more conservative approach by Dubya would encourage the Democrats to to turn out. I see no evidence for this. I do see evidence, however, that a more moderate approach will discourage conservatives from turning out.

[Poohbah]

Well yes but you seem to be assuming that a more conservative approach by Dubya would encourage the Democrats to to turn out.

After 1994, that's exactly right: the Dems discovered that staying home is really stupid.

I see no evidence for this.

Your model assumes that liberals are just as stupid as conservatives. On this issue, they aren't.

I do see evidence, however, that a more moderate approach will discourage conservatives from turning out.

A more conservative approach did NOT significantly motivate the base in 1994, either.

When "the base" is a no-show for eight years, despite numerous fall-on-their-sword efforts by the GOP (Contract with America, budget deadlock, impeachment of a popular President), it's hard to argue that the base even matters.