Fair enough. Do you have any examples of where GOP "moderation" has worked in securing significant congressional gains? About the only example I can think of was in 1952 when the GOP just barely (despite Ike's landslide) took control of both Houses. All of this was lost in 1954 and the GOP did not take control of either house again until 1980.
Actually, the only key factor is keeping the
Democrat base from turning out.
The Dems are simply losing their scare-'em issues for the base, and their attacks on Bush are looking less and less focused on reality--just like they did in 1994, BTW.