Posted on 06/12/2002 9:05:07 PM PDT by chasio649
In the land of Reagan, GOP faces prospect of a shutout Polls and even Republicans themselves say Democrats look poised to sweep California's top offices in November. By Daniel B. Wood | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
LOS ANGELES - One leading Republican strategist calls the race for governor here "a boxing match with [Democratic Gov.] Gray Davis in one corner hitting himself in the face, while in the other corner a pair of gloves languishes unused."
A second says California Democrats this November could pull off the first, all-partisan sweep of the state's top seven elected offices in more than half a century.
A third calls the Republican predicament statewide here "the most dire in recent memory."
Reflecting a steady demographic shift in race, ethnicity, and income, the state that created the prototypical Republican enclave, Orange Country, and launched the country's most-popular conservative, Ronald Reagan, is tilting more and more Democratic. With the governor's office, both legislative houses, both Senate seats, and most big-city mayors solidly Democratic, some see even bigger gains ahead and wonder if voters may ever look back.
"I don't think this is a blip on the screen," says Larry Berg, founder of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics. He and others recount the rise of Asian and Latino middle classes, the decline of the industrial base of defense-aerospace after the cold war, and the ascendancy of high-tech and entertainment-based wealth are all combining to produce a new kind of voter base with decidedly liberal loyalties. "The makeup of the state just isn't what it used to be," says Mr. Berg.
The latest evidence to play into this theory are the fortunes of Mr. Davis who, despite a rash of top-shelf – high-profile – bungles, is leading his Republican opponent by a huge margin in a top poll.
Critics blame Davis for the state's energy woes of recent years as well as unpopular strategies to pull through the crisis, such assigning expensive, long-term electricity contracts. Having come into office with a $4 billion surplus, he is widely viewed as the main culprit behind a $23 billion state budget deficit, the largest in US history. And he is also embroiled in a political scandal in which an aide is accused of accepting a $25,000 check from a lobbyist for software company Oracle several days after the state signed a $95 million contract with the same company.
Yet since the March 5 primary, when Davis was two points behind his Republican challenger, Bill Simon, Davis has charged ahead to a 14-point lead in the California Poll. That suggests that if the election were held today – among California Poll voters who say they've already decided – Davis would be elected by a 20 percent margin.
But besides taking the top office, such a scenario could also ripple across other such high-profile posts as secretary of state, to lieutenant goveronor, controller, treasurer, and insurance commissioner.
"He would probably carry the entire ticket with him," says Tony Quinn, a long-time analyst of political and demographic trends. He says a Davis win could bring with it Democratic seats in the state legislature – perhaps close to a two-thirds margin – "at which point Republicans would become completely irrelevant in Sacramento."
Mr. Quinn and others see broader consequences from such developments. Across the state, it means a shrinking pool of viable Republican candidates for offices from Congress to statehouse, solidifying Democratic strengths for years to come. Nationally, it includes a Democratic party and presidential candidate who could rely on California's 55 electoral votes and thus spend money – as they did in the 2000 election – on other states. It also could mean a Bush administration write-off of the state in the interim – abandoning key California voter concerns.
"It takes California out of the equation for Bush when he gets no help if he runs here," says Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. "That's why you see a national farm bill with a lot for Iowa farmers but none for California, or why Bush is willing to do an oil-drilling moratorium off Florida, but not California."
Others say pronouncing the election loss of Mr. Simon or the death of the California Republican party is premature. They cite private polls in which the top candidates are dead-even. And they say the same scenario – in which the top vote-getter in the November gubernatorial race influences other key ticket choices – could just as easily run the other way.
"It's entirely possible that if voters are so fed up with Davis that they fail to show up at the polls in large numbers, you could also have big Republican wins down the ticket," says Mark DiCamillo, director of the California Poll.
But most analysts say that Simon has not sufficiently taken advantage of Davis' weaknesses – partly out of personal style, partly out of political strategy, and partly out of lack of money. His coffers reportedly stand around $8 million compared with Davis' $40 million.
"There are some of us who would like Simon to become more aggressive," says Dan Schnur, a former adviser to Republican Gov. Pete Wilson and former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan. "The energy crisis and the budget mess have put Davis in a bad situation, but Simon has yet to grow his advantage."
Simon's own political advisers say there is no need to jump into a heated battle with Davis now, five months before the election. California's primary was early this year – in March – leaving more months than usual open to campaigning.
"There is no way voters are going to stand for a six-month election campaign for governor," says Simon campaign chief Sal Russo. "When someone is taking the gun out to shoot themselves, you just don't want to say anything to make them shoot at you."
As he did in the primary, Simon appears to be taking the strategy of letting voters become disenchanted with the opposition, rather than lay out specifics on issues in which voters are already known to resist conservative values.
But some observers say this tactic is even more calculated.
"What's he going to say without getting into trouble?" asks Berg "From water to transportation, to education, to the environment, to crime, he is on the wrong side of the issues from where most California voters are. This is no longer the state it used to be."
Notice the "top poll" is un-named. Anyone on this board heard of such a poll result? No, because it's fiction. This article is the first installment of Governor Davis' multi-million dollar propaganda campaign.
Simon may have a tough row to hoe till the election but i'm glad to see he has enough sense to reject advice from losers in the Riordan camp.
More reliable information can be found here:
Simon Leads Davis by 8 in Labor Poll
San Fran. Chronicle - Matier & Ross Column - June 12, 2002
FIRST STRIKE: After five days of "positive" ads, Gov. Gray Davis unleashed the first in what will likely be a series of attack ads on Republican opponent Bill Simon -- and with good reason.
There's a new poll floating around Sacramento that shows the embattled Davis trailing Simon by a whopping eight points.
The poll -- which was of likely voters and paid for by the Democratic- friendly Service Employees International Union -- found newcomer Simon at 42 percent to Davis' 34 percent.
Doesn't matter.
A Simon win (plausible) without a mandate against Illegals (over George W. Bush's dead body) only puts off the day of reckoning.
Nevertheless, Freepers and Republicans to the north and to the east will spin this as "brilliant politics."
Their brand of cowardice has brought us to this.
Everywhere Simon goes, he's mobbed. He's meeting weekly with all the important organizations within the state. I think he's got a good chance - primarily because Davis is continually shooting himself in the foot.
Remember, the dems favorite trick is to use PROJECTION. What they do is tell the opposite of the truth. In other words, if their guy is way behind, they will say it's the other way around. I do believe this is exactly what's going on. This method is used to disarm the opponent and cause them to become discouraged and stop supporting the repub candidate. So far, this has worked for them - but after 9-11, they don't seem able to pull this off anymore.
And ... I don't believe there is a Republican in California who would say such a thing about Simon (unless they're a RINO). The head of the RNC just met with Simon this past week. That wouldn't have happened if there was going to be a shutout. I believe Bush has told Mark to give Simon all the help he needs.
Also, I get e-mails from the Simon camp and they continue to count the President as someone who will return to California and support Simon at least 1 more time, and possibly 2 times.
Now this is interesting:
The poll was conducted April 19-24, both before and during two days of discussions about proposed church policies on sexual offenders between the pope and U.S. Roman Catholic cardinals in Rome.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, said there was no marked difference in the way respondents answered questions after the Rome meetings began.
``I think these views are pretty stable,'' DiCamillo said. ``California Catholics are much more progressive than the church's existing policies.''
So the same guy is director of both the Field Poll and The California Poll!
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This is BS. So, this guy is implying that Davis is on the correct side of all these issues. Yeah, a lot of good that has done California! I don't buy this article at all. It totally contradicts the other article with the poll showing Simon 8 points ahead and only 34% approving of Gray Davis.
I sure wish I still lived in CA so I could work on Simon's campaign. It seems to me he is trying to raise money so he can compete with Davis's dough when the campaign heats up after Labor Day. It's summer now and people aren't paying attention to the political campaigns. Simon is right to lie low, build up his resources, and then go for it in the Fall. Go SIMON!
See post #13 above.
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