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Posted on 05/21/2002 11:21:41 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
SAN FRANCISCO, May 21 (Reuters) - These should be golden days for California's Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.
The state's power crisis is all but over, and Davis has declared political and moral victory. The Republicans have nominated a conservative rookie to face him in November -- boosting the Democrat's chances for a second term despite his own dreary ratings in the polls.
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And Davis has no shortage of campaign funds to fight the battle, promising an aggressive statewide publicity campaign to persuade voters that he has made good on his promise to deliver a "stronger, kinder and better" California.
Despite the good news, Davis finds himself fighting on a number of fronts, any one of which could spell big trouble.
A budding scandal over a botched state contract with software maker Oracle Corp (NasdaqNM:ORCL - News) and a subsequent Oracle contribution to Davis' reelection campaign has unleashed a wave of criticism over Davis' fund-raising tactics, including Republican charges that he is running a "pay to play" administration which offers political payoffs to big contributors.
California's massive $24 billion budget deficit is also punching holes in Davis' good mood, and looks likely to cause him more political pain as he seeks to sell a plan to balance the books by simultaneously cutting programs and raising taxes.
And political analysts say Davis' hopes to capitalize on hints that last year's power shortages were at least partially engineered by energy companies may backfire by reviving debate over his handling of the crisis -- an episode for which he has never drawn high approval ratings.
The focus on Davis' own record threatens to divert attention from the "wedge issues" his camp sees as its real strength against Simon -- abortion, gun control, and liberal California social values.
"The governor might want to talk about other things, but he is still the subject of debate," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California.
"Any reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. So what voters are really going to be asking themselves now is 'what have you done for me lately?'"
FUND-RAISING FALLOUT
Davis most immediate problem is political fallout from the Oracle controversy, which came to light last month after an official audit concluded that the state could end up overpaying some $41 million for software it did not need.
Officials later said that Oracle had donated $25,000 to Davis' reelection campaign after the contract was concluded. Davis reacted swiftly, suspending or firing three senior aides and returning the money.
But the scandal threw a spotlight on money-raising tactics which have made Davis among the best funded politicians in California history, a nonstop squeeze on corporations, organizations, unions, and individuals that has banked more than $42 million for his reelection campaign.
The San Francisco Chronicle, in an analysis of campaign computer records, determined that Davis had pulled in donations at a rate of $1,800 an hour, 24 hours a day -- for the past five years.
Davis aides say the prodigious fund-raising is necessary for a "man of limited means" who has run repeatedly against millionaire Republican candidates like Simon who are happy to finance their own campaigns.
"We have to raise money in order to be competitive," said campaign spokesman Roger Salazar, adding that there was no quid pro quo for donations. "The bottom line is that Gov. Davis has never based any policy decision on contributions. He never has and never will."
ENRON BITES BACK?
While critics focus on fund-raising, Davis himself has been focusing on Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and allegations that the energy company helped rig California's devastating energy crisis last year.
After claiming for months that California had been mugged for billions of dollars by unscrupulous energy generators, Davis has seized on new evidence of questionable Enron trading schemes as vindicating his long fight for more federal oversight and huge energy rebates to the state.
But some political analysts say that Davis' focus on Enron could backfire, noting that Davis' own approval ratings fell sharply during the energy crisis and never fully recovered.
"Voters have already decided what they think of Gray Davis and the energy crisis, and they blame him for not solving it in a more satisfactory way," said Dan Schnur, a Republican political consultant.
Schnur said that Simon, who has attacked Davis for mismanaging the state's huge budget deficit, could score more points by depicting the governor as the man who ran California finances into the ground while ensuring his own campaign coffers are full to overflowing.
"If the campaign is about abortion and guns, Davis will probably be elected. But if Simon can make it about energy, the economy and the state budget, then he has a much better chance."
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Now it's possible that something suddenly shifted all the support over to Davis, but until I see another poll matching up with this outlier I view it rather suspiciously. I'll take four consistent polls over one stand-alone.
Sure, the CA voters are a serious concern. So is Davis' war chest. But Gray's re-elect numbers are awful. I'm just hoping a significant number of Dems stay home. I think Simon's got a legitimate shot, but we've got over five months to go.
....I get emails from his site every other day.
....do you honestly think the media will cover him?
Actually his site lists a lot of news articles with coverage of him. Bill Simon has been busy, and will continue to be.
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