Another take on Enron: Pundits have been bloviating on the subject of Enron and its potential political ramifications for weeks now. This is the O'Toole File take on the story.The whole Enronathon is probably an equal opportunity scandal at the national level; both sides took money, both sides did some favors, and, if Dems are generally helped by a climate of corporate suspicion, Republicans are assisted by the anti-Washington sentiment generated by the attack on Enron's Congressional inquisitors. The real effect will be on the presidential election of 2004.
If George W. Bush wants to turn the next presidential election into a victory lap, he's got to peel off a part of the Democratic electoral base. (The vaunted Republican electoral L is long gone.) That means that he has to be at least competitive in states that have been reliably Democratic. Until the Enron scandal broke, the Bush folks clearly meant to concentrate on the newly-Democratic Far West. Post Enron, that may no longer be possible.
Before the scandal, the California energy crisis, with its double-digit price increases and rolling blackouts, was hard to explain to voters. Republicans talked about failed deregulation and free-market principles; Democrats went on about spot prices and some Texas company called Enron.
Six of one, half-dozen of the other.
Suddenly, the Democratic story is simple. A bunch of crooks called Enron cut off your power and extorted your money to turn it back on. And guess what? George W. Bush let them get away with it. Wait for the thirty second spots, and see how easy it is to communicate this idea. [emphasis added by snopercod]
All of which means that the Far West probably won't be competitive in 2002, even if Richard Riordan wins the governorship as a Rockefeller Republican. That means we're back to fighting over Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc., states that have been trending Democratic in recent years. In other words, don't look for the "Enron effect" in national polls. Look for it where all presidential politics ultimately plays out -- state by state. Particularly out West.
[posted by Jack O'Toole at 5:55 PM | link]