Posted on 03/03/2002 7:15:24 AM PST by TheRedSoxWinThePennant
OCTOBER BULLETIN SAID AL-QAEDA TERRORISTS THOUGHT TO HAVE 10 KILOTON NUCLEAR WEAPON TO BE SMUGGLED INTO NEW YORK CITY Sun Mar 03 2002 10:40:24 ET **TIME MAGAZINE**
New York -- In October, an intelligence alert went out to a small number of government agencies, including the Energy Department's top-secret Nuclear Emergency Search Team, based in Nevada. The report said that terrorists were thought to have obtained a 10-kiloton nuclear weapon from the Russian arsenal, and planned to smuggle it into New York City, a special TIME magazine investigation reveals.
Publishing sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT, the next cover story of TIME will headline: "Can We Stop the Next 9/11?"
The report hits newsstands Monday, March 4th.
MORE
The source: a mercurial agent code-named DRAGONFIRE, who intelligence officials believed was of "undetermined" reliability, TIME reports. But DRAGONFIRE'S claim tracked with a report from a Russian general who believed his forces were missing a 10-kiloton device.
That made the DRAGONFIRE report alarming. So did this: detonated in lower Manhattan, a 10-kiloton bomb would kill some 100,000 civilians and irradiate 700,000 more, flattening everything in a half-mile diameter.
Counterterrorist investigators went on their highest state of alert, TIME reports. "It was brutal," a U.S. official told TIME.
It was also highly classified and closely guarded.
MORE
Under the aegis of the White House’s Counterterrorism Security Group, part of the National Security Council, the suspected nuke was kept secret so as not to panic the people of New York. Senior FBI officials were not in the loop. Former mayor Rudolph Giuliani says he was never told about the threat. In the end, the investigators found nothing, and concluded that DRAGONFIRE'S information was false. But few of them slept better.
Counterterrorism experts and government officials interviewed by TIME say that for all the relative calm since Sept. 11, America’s luck will probably run out again, sooner or later. "It's going to be worse, and a lot of people are going to die," warns one U.S. counterterrorism official. "I don't think there's a damn thing we're going to be able to do about it."
The DRUDGE REPORT has been briefed on other revelations coming from TIME's investigation:
The Coast Guard is arming itself against a possible terrorist attempt to destroy a major U.S. coastal city by detonating a tanker loaded with liquified natural gas.
The Administration has recalled old CIA hands with experience in Central Asia. Says an Administration official: "You ended up going back to retirees because the bench was so light on Afghanistan. We’re still trying to get up to speed."
This week, Tom Ridge’s office plans to announce a new color-coded alert system to warn local law enforcement and the public about threats within U.S. borders, sources tell TIME.
While there is a genuine debate inside the government about whether Osama bin Laden is still alive, there is far less argument about what will happen after Washington is able to confirm that he is dead. A U.S. official told TIME last week that it is widely presumed that al-Qaeda sleeper cells will take retaliatory action once the terrorist leader is killed or proven dead.
"We're as vulnerable today as we were on 9/10 or 9/12," says presidential counselor Karen Hughes. "We just know more."
Developing...
criminy sheesh here, what got into you?
Don't bother answering, this is my two limit reply to unwarranted flames. If you want to post further abuse, flag it to yourself.
Unless the fissile material was cooked in a reactor that NEVER had any sort of leak (vanishingly unlikely if the reactor in question was owned by the former Worker's Paradise--hey, Moscow, I've got two words for ya: "QUALITY CONTROL"), we probably have enough of a signature to ID the general origin of the material.
Something the size of a trunk is quite feasible technically. We had a whole series of threads discussing this back a few months ago, and the consensus was that it was indeed feasible to construct a nuclear device that would fit in something the size of a trunk. A little difficult to carry down the street, especially since it would weigh 70-150 lbs. But quite easy to carry even in a VW beetle. There is somewhat credible evidence in the public domain that the Soviets, at least, did actually produce some quantity of these. The US appears to have experimented with something like this, but it is uncertain whether such ever was or now is in our weapons inventory.
It is more questionable whether or not something the size of a suitcase is feasible. Theoretically possible, perhaps, but the problems involved tend to work against it being attempted.
Obtaining such a device is only the first challenge to a terrorist. The device's control systems may need to be re-engineered, something that a competent electrical engineer might be able to do. The device may or may not still have its fissile core, it may actually be easier to obtain a device on the black market with the fissile core removed. If no fissile core, then weapons-grade material must be obtained (much more difficult to do), and then properly processed and fabricated. The third piece that would evidently be an absolute necessity would be a small supply of fresh Tritium. These small devices absolutely must have a neutron generator to seed the chain reaction, and you must have fresh Tritium to do it. Very rare, very expensive, very difficult to obtain even on the black market.
The only likely scenario for OBL or anyone else to have an actual working device would be to obtain all three elements through separate transactions with different players. Not impossible, but very difficult to pull off.
The one thing that makes me really nervous is the rumors that have been circulating for quite some time now to the effect that the Soviets smuggled into the US and stashed a quantity of these portable nukes. If this DID happen, then there is indeed a real danger that OBL or someone was able to buy the info about their location on the black market. The good news is that by now, these devices would need to be recharged with fresh Tritium, or else they would be duds. The bad news is that it is not impossible that OBL has also been attempting to buy Tritium. I have not heard anything about this, but if you DO see a news story to that effect, it is time to really start worrying.
I have always wondered if the "hunt for Eric Rudolph" wasn't just an elaborate cover story so that the Fedgov could scour the mountains of WNC searching for these hidden Soviet portable nukes.
And that's what happened here.
How many times have we seen it over the years, here on FR? The PLA troops in Idaho. The detention camps in Arizona. And now, the suitcase nuke in Duluth.
Why can't people just dissect these stories calmly and get a more worthwhile kick from revealing the skeleton of BS beneath?
Personally, I don't want to hear your flaming responses to people wo are commenting on a posted article. It's clear cut abuse, and I hope the moderators have taken notice of it. You didn't jump in as a normal poster would and just offer additional information or commentary, you just jumped in and started flaming various folks.
Second notice, stop flagging me to your flames.
The government was the victim of a hoax.
IMHO, the order to detonate a nuclear device on U.S. soil will come from Saddam when he feels he can achieve the maximum strategic benefit or as a last ditch effort before he is removed from power. Saddam and the axis of evil have been extremely successful in their war on America, some examples include the WTC bombing in 1993, Khobar Towers bombing, OKC bombing, African embassy bombings, the U.S.S. Cole, and 9-11. We should not underestimate this enemy.
This will never happen.
But I suppose if the idea of U.S. nuclear destruction is being floated now in order to further Conservative causes and appropriations, fine with me.
In reality, 9-11 is as surprised as this country is ever going to get.
Thank God.
And you know this because....a little birdie told you? Your crystal ball? Tea leaves?
The "good news" about this is that a "dirty bomb" is much more readily detectable, because the nuclear material in it is much "hotter" (in terms of gammas and neutrons) than bomb-grade material is, and the danger radius is limited to how far the radioactive material spreads and a small distance further--much less, say, than the danger radius associated with a ten kiloton explosion.
Of course, if you're immediately downwind of the blast, you're (BLEEP)ed, bigtime...
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